December 27th to 29th snow system. Widespread minor accumulations fell.

Hometown house Clayton,WI December 28th

A low pressure system moving across the Upper Midwest delivered snow to the region yesterday in what turned out to be a long range snow event that started Thursday night all the way through Friday. The snow was mostly light in nature but some moderate snows were seen. Accumulations ranged from 2 to as much as 4 inches across portions of the area. I watched the system unfold on radar from my Wisconsin hometown where I'm on break. I posted the photo above from the systems effects at my hometown house in Clayton,Wisconsin, where even we saw the snow here in Northwest Wisconsin. Interesting thing to note this is the longest stretch of cold and snow that Southeastern Minnesota has seen in quite some time!

Snowfall Reports

Minnesota City 4.20"
 Winona 4.0"
Wabasha 3.30"
Grand Meadow 3.0"
Dodge Center 2.90"
Claremont 2.90"
Rochester Airport 2.80"
Zumbrota 2.50"
Byron 2.20" 
Lanesbro 2.0"
Red Wing 2.0"

 

Snow system will produce developing snow Thursday night into Friday. Snow could be heavy at times 2-4" likely. Turning dry and seasonal for the weekend. Updated X1

Regional Weather View.

After last weeks snowstorm we have cold arctic air in place for the Christmas Holiday with a high pressure system in place. The stormtrack is located to the south of the region bringing severe weather and significant snow to  southern states. This will leave the Upper Midwest cold and sunny. Friday a clipper system will move across Southern Minnesota and Northern Iowa which could deliver snow across parts of Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin, but it will not cause too much problems. Temperatures will start off below normal and rise to near normal.

Local and Metro weather views.



Snow developing Thursday Night into Friday

Expect Thursday to be warmer with highs in the 20s and lows near 0, but we will also have increasing clouds. Thursday night into Friday light snow will begin developing ahead of the next storm which will be a clipper. Snow will begin developing Thursday night and last into the 1st part of Friday. It will be moderate to heavy at times, with accumulations ranging from 2-4" This will cause some minor travel inconveniences but nothing major. Highs will otherwise be in the 20s Thursday and Friday with lows in the mid 10s Saturday will be mostly cloudy with highs in the 20s lows in the single digits and Sunday will be mostly sunny and cooler with highs in the mid 10s and lows nearing 0.








Thursday, Cloudy and warmer. Highs in the lower 20s, Thursday Night, Snow developing, some could be heavy at times. Lows in the mid 10s

Friday, Snow in the morning, some could be heavy at times, otherwise cloudy with highs in the mid 20s. Snow accumulations 2-4" Friday Night, Cloudy, lows in the middle 10s

Saturday, Cloudy with highs in the upper 10s to lower 20s. Saturday Night, Cloudy with lows in the single digits.

Sunday, Cooler, Sunny skies, Chilly highs in the mid to upper 10s. Sunday Night, Clear skies with lows in the single digits to near zero

Looking Ahead

Expect dry cool weather to end out December and to start of the first part of 2013. A brief warm up  arrives by the 3rd to give us a break from the cold, but its short lived because a storm system passing to the north gives a shot of cold air again on the 5th of January bringing dry cool weather once again. Around January 9th it actually begins to turn on the mild, cloudy side with a chance for some light snows every few days. There are no big snowstorms in the long term.  

   

December 20th Winter Storm Report- Significant snowfall accumulations with strong winds 40 to near 50MPH brought blizzard conditions causing some road closures. Southeastern Minnesota will have a white Christmas!

Blowing snow in my neighborhood December 20th 2012

A significant winter storm brought impacted Southeastern Minnesota on Thursday bringing with it significant snowfall around 4 to nearly 10" of snow and high winds near 50MPH at some locations which caused travel impacts and blizzard conditions at times. The cause of the storm was a low pressure system which originated in the Southwest U.S, The low moved up through Iowa and Northwest Illinois which pushed heavy snow into Southeastern Minnesota through the night into Thursday. As the low strengthen and moved over the Chicago area it began kicking up winds on its northwest side which brought the blizzard conditions.

 Upper Midwest Radar Shot-Image from NWS La Crosse

This storm was quite large. The National Weather Service offices across the Upper Midwest had Blizzard Warnings covering parts of at least 6 states including our area and nearly the entire state of Iowa, with Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories covering even a larger area. In Iowa where some of the worst impacts were seen snow exceeding 12" were seen in spots coupled with winds of 60MPH at times caused closure of entire start freeway systems. Wisconsin had even more snow, reports of 15 to 18" came in from Northwest of Madison, this was also kicked up by 30-40MPH winds.Chicago and areas southeast had temperatures warming to 50.F with rain and thunderstorms.

Blowing snow from buildings along 2nd street SW just west of Mayo Clinic December 20th

Here in Southeastern Minnesota, we felt this storms impacts in terms of wind and heavy snowfall. The NWS put us under Blizzard Warnings by Wednesday afternoon because of a northwest shift in the storm, which came as a surprise to many, including me. Some schools and business already began announcing closing for Thursday by Wednesday Evening. The snow started here in Rochester after 10:30 Wednesday Night and was heavy at times from about that time to about 6AM, but by 6AM most of the snow had already fallen. The storm total here at my yard in Rochester was 6.0" while 7.0" fell out at the airport. The winds were actually quite calm while the snow was falling but around 10AM the winds began to pick up, and by evening widespread gusts well over 40 to near 50MPH was reported. Significant blowing and drifting snow was a problem. Some impacts by this was the closing of some roads near the Winona area, multiple accidents throughout the region, and cancelled flights into and out of the Rochester International Airport. The impacts were not as bad as they could have been since most people stayed off the roads, and in the city of Rochester most people got to where they needed to be in between the heavy snowfall and gusty winds, so although travel was significant hindered, not many people were stuck. The blizzard condtions were especially a problem in the rural flatland areas around and west of Rochester, and the top of the blufflands near Winona and Wabasha. Temperatures were on a cooling trend during the storm and by morning were in the mid to upper single digits. The low here at my station was 8.F, and at the airport 7.F.

I encourage people to view the NWS La Crosse Page and view their nice summary on the event. 


A fairly thick blanket of snow now covers Southeastern Minnesota and this storm delivered us a white Christmas which we did not have in 2011! Snowfall and wind reports show the highest accumulation in the highlands by the Missippi River Minnesota City which a small suburb of the Winona Metro reported 9.70" of snow. Lesser amounts around in western and northern areas where generally 3-4" of snow fell. I was dissapointed by the fact I found no snowfall reports out of Goodhue County.

 Minnesota City 9.70"
Spring Valley 8.0"
Grand Meadow 8.0"  43MPH
Mantorville 7.50"
Lake City 7.50"
Wabasha 7.40"   36MPH
Winona 7.0"     37MPH
Oak Center 7.0"
Brownsdale 7.0"
Dover 7.0"
Rochester Airport 7.0"    43MPH
St Charles 6.50"
W. Downtown Rochester 6.0"   49MPH
Emerald Hills 6.0"
Meadow Park 6.0"
Austin 6.20"     40MPH
Preston 6.10"        41MPH
Byron 5.80"     43MPH
Northwest Rochester 5.60"
Dodge Center  5.10"
Claremont 4.30"
Lanesbro 4.10"


Canton 47MPH
Dexter 45MPH
Cannon Falls 36MPH
Red Wing 31MPH

Dangerous Blizzard Condtions for Southeastern Minnesota! Northwestern edge of a major winter storm will cause sigificant impacts and dangerous travel condtions Sigificant snowfall accumulations expected with strong winds over 45MPH at times causing whiteout condtions with sigificant blowing and drifting. Cold Arctic dry air will race southward for the weekend. Updated X2

Regional Weather View

All attention is focused on a major winter storm which will send its rampage across the Upper Midwest starting late tomorrow. Winter Storm Warnings, Watches and Blizzard watches are all out concerning this storms potential. This storm will cause blizzard conditions, heavy snow and major travel impacts to parts of Iowa, Nebraska and Wisconsin. Significant accumulations will also be seen in far Southeastern Minnesota Major snowfall accumulations over 12" are possible with 4-5 foot drifts in parts of Iowa and Wisconsin, with winds gusting 45 to 50MPH at times here. A blast of cold arctic fairly typical for December will race in behind the storm bringing with in colder and much calmer weather for the weekend.

Local and Rochester Metro view.

Getting right to the storm in question we will be on the northwestern edge of this storm. Impacts here in Southeastern Minnesota will be from  heavy snowfall and most importantly the wind which will gust over 45MPH at times causing blowing and drifting and blizzard conditions at times and the cold temperatures expected to follow it. We can expect that most of Wednesday will be ok with cloudy skies and fairly mild day in the lower 30s. Snow will start after 11pm and could quickly become heavy at times.  It wont take long for strong northwesterly winds 30-35MPH to develop with gusts around possibly over 45MPH. This will cause blowing and drifting of snow which will cause significantly reduced visibilities especially in rural countryside areas. These conditions will last into Thursday Morning before the snow tapers but the strong winds and blowing snow continues even into Thursday Night. Temperatures will be falling through the day and the wind chill will be very cold below zero at times. We can expect lows to bottom out in the single digits Thursday night. We can expect that Friday will be sunny and cold with high pressure taking over. Sunny weather will last through the weekend but we will warm it up a few degrees with highs in the 20s Saturday and Sunday with lows in the single digits and 10s

Major travel impacts expected business and road closures likely

Forecast models have taken a northwest shift with this storm putting our area even more into its dangerous impacts. It is now likely snow will be heavy at times with winds gusting over 45MPH at times causing dangerous blizzard, whiteout conditions.  Accumulations have been uped for all areas with the northwest shift in the storm seen. It will still be highest in the southeast where 8-12" of snow is possible around Preston and Winona. 5-8" is now possible around Austin, The Rochester metro area and Lake City.  Wind gusts will be higher in these areas due to the naturally flat treeless areas, this will caused enhanced blowing and drifting leading to travel impacts and blizzard conditions at times. Dodge Center, Red Wing and Cannon Falls will see 2-4"with significant blowing and drifting seen here as well.

Wednesday, Cloudy skies, mild highs in the middle 30s. Wednesday Night, Windy! Snow developing, some could be moderate to heavy at times. Northwest winds increasing 30 to 35MPH with gusts over 45MPH possible. Significant blowing and drifting snow possible with whiteout condtions Lows in the low 20s.

Thursday, Windy and Cold! Blizzard Conditions at times with whiteout conditions.  Snow ending in the afternoon but strong wind with cold wind chills continuing. Storm total accumulations 2-4" Northwest 5-8" central 8-12" Southeast. Winds 30-35MPH with gusts over 45MPH Thursday Night, Breezy, Very Cold! with Cold wind chills. Lows in the upper single digits. Wind chills  below zero

Friday, Cold! Not as windy, sunny with highs in the upper 10s. Friday Night, Clear skies, lows in the middle to upper single digits. 

Saturday, Sunny skies, light winds, Highs in the upper 10s to lower 20s. Saturday Night, Clear skies, lows in the middle single digits.

Sunday, Sunny skies, light winds, highs in the upper 10s to lower 20s. Saturday Night, Clear skies, lows in the upper single digits to lower 10s.

Looking Ahead

Monday through Christmas Day: Weather looks quiet through Christmas for Southeastern Minnesota at this time with at least no big snowstorms. There is one little system which could bring light snow on Christmas day but it doesn't look heavy. It will continue to be quiet into the end of this month. There is only a chance of small systems every 5 days or so. Temperatures during this time look to be on either side of normal with no big warm ups or cool downs. Then as we go into January a large trough of cold air races southward out of northwest Canada bringing with is extreamlly cold arctic air settling in after New Years. There might be a some snow as this air moves in but it does not show any big storms. We'll need to continue to watch the model just in case any changes are seen. Winter can be a pretty crazy time for the U.S in terms of changes.

Snow developing for tonight and the 1st part of Tuesday, could see an inch or two then Snowstorm for Thursday? Still in question with much dissagreement-updated X2

Tonight System

Tonight and Tuesday: A small fast moving system currently located in South Dakota will quickly move east following the I-90 corridor across the southern part of Minnesota. This small feature will spread a quick burst of snow for Southern Minnesota and Central Wisconsin for late tonight into the 1st half of tomorrow, especially near the morning commute. Accumulations with this event will be 1-2" across our entire area with the chance to be on ether side of those amounts wither it be less or more. It could be briefly heavy at times with totals adding up fairly quick. It will be a wet type of snow as temperatures will rise into the middle 30s under cloudy skies for the rest of Tuesday. Roads should not be too slippery once temperatures warm up. The snow should be completely done by 2pm. Tuesday Night will be cloudy with lows in the 20s Wednesday will be cloudy with snow developing after 5pm from our next system which is still in question on amounts and timing this will lead to possibly accumulating snow Wednesday Night into Thursday. See more below.




Likely low pressure track for Thursday.

Wednesday night and Thursdays storm are still highly dependent on the low pressures track, but it will likely just graze our area, with the most severe impacts being to our east. There are two possible tracks of this storm. One track that the models have been favoring them most lately would be that the low would track closer to Peoria,Illinois. This would keep all significant snowfall accumulations south of our area. However the other track shows the storm passing near Des Monies, Iowa. This track favors our area to see significant snowfall accumulations along with very windy conditions in which could create blizzard conditions.  What is un convincing to me as a forecaster is that there is still some disagreement but it is becoming more apparent that the track will likely be the one above. Please stay tuned to your favorite weather sources concerning this significant winter storm.

Accumulation potential how it looks now.

Accumulations for this system as it looks tonight look to be 1-2" for locations Northwest of a line from Lake City to Byron to Austin. Including such areas as Dodge Center, Mantorville, Kenyon, Pine Island, Cannon Falls and Red Wing for locations  2-4" Northwest of a line from Le Roy to St Charles to Wabasha, including The Rochester Metro, Plainview and Adams, and 4-6" southeast of this same line effecting Winona and Preston areas.

Big cooldown expected after the storm

No matter what amounts accumulate  during this event is is extreamlly apparent that temperatures will drastically cool down as cold air is drug down from the north behind the storm. Highs Thursday through the weekend up until Monday of the upcoming week of Christmas will only be in the 10s and lower 20s with lows dipping into the single digits at night. So be prepared for a big cool down after the middle of the week.

All to most of areas snow melted with heathly rainfall ammounts that fell over the weekend- Probabiltiy of a white Christmas Map included

Moderate rain shower December 15th 2012

This weekend a storm system moved across Minnesota with our area being on the warm side of the storm. Being on the warm side of the system waves of light to moderate rain and drizzle pasted through the area Saturday along with rising temperatures which rose to the lower 40s. The high at my station during the system was 41.F Healthy rainfall amounts ranging from a half an inch to over an inch were seen. Unfortunately the rain came and the expense of all to most of the snow in Southeastern Minnesota and areas that were once white are back to brown, including here in Rochester.  As the storm pulled away it did end as some light snow but only trace amounts were reported.

 
Probability of a White Christmas Map From Climatesource.com

With the recent melting of the snow It has one wondering if we will have our 2nd brown Christmas in a row. Above is the probability of a white Christmas set as percentages based on climatological historic data. Most of the area falls in the 70-80% range ( Green) but the further north you are the higher the chances Red Wing northwards falls in the 80-90% chance ( Blue) while Northern Minnesota and Wisconsin fall in the 90-100% Chance ( Purple ) Likewise as you go south of the areas chance of a white Christmas decrease significantly. I will have to dig up some records to see just how many times our areas has had more then 1 brown Christmas in a row. 

Reported Rainfall amounts.

Austin 1.05"
Preston 0.80"
Dodge Center 0.56"
 Red Wing 0.56"
Winona 0.53"
 W Downtown Rochester-(My Station) 0.42"
Rochester Airport 0.41"
Cannon Falls 0.41"

Weekend system coming is as mostly plain old warm rain for the area. Healthy Ammounts 0.25-0.50" possible. Rain turning to wet snow near storms end, Little to no snow accumulation, Cooling down Sunday. Another system Thursday of this week?

Regional Weather View

The next storm system is pushing into the Upper Midwest from Nebraska this evening. The center of this storm will move across Iowa into Minnesota, The one will have a lot of warm air with it which means most of the precipitation will fall as rain over a large chuck of the region. It will also drag in very warm air as warm as the middle 50s as far north as Des Monies. Sunday as the storm moves away some areas will see wet snow mixing in as colder air moves southward. All the the accumulation though will be confined to Northern Minnesota and Wisconsin. Things will clear out region wide for the start of next week through the middle of next week. Snowless areas will be rather mild due to a lack of snowcover and cold air. It will remain dry through at least Wednesday until our next potential weather system moves in. See the extended forecast for this one.

Local and Metro Weather Views

For our area the storms path will mean a mostly plain old warm rain event. Temperatures through most of the storm will be well above freezing and in fact may warm to near 40, so freezing rain will not be an issue. Saturday will be very wet with waves of moderate rain and drizzle throughout the day. Highs will be near 40, with lows in the middle 30s. Rainfall amounts will be near 0.25-0.50" to as much as 0.75" in localized areas. It is likely this rain and warmth will melt all of our current snowcover. As the storm pulls away from our area on Sunday the rain will turn to a few wet snowflakes, but by they most of the precipitation will end and there will be little to no snow accumulation. Snow will come to an end Sunday Morning. Sunday will be warm early in the morning, but turn cooler and blustery by the afternoon. It really wont turn too unreasonably cold after the storm passage for at least December standards anyway. Highs will still be in the upper 20s on Monday, with lows in the upper 10s. It will be dry, with clearing skies. Tuesday and even Wednesday temperatures will actually rebound to the middle 30s with more sunshine coming back into the picture. It might even approach 40.F with the lack of snowcover we will likely have by that time. Lows will be in the lower 20s each night.

Saturday, Very Mild, Rain, Could be moderate at times. Highs in the lower 40s. Saturday Night, Rain, Turning to wet snow late. Lows in the middle 30s. Little or no snow accumulation.

Sunday, Rain/Snow ending as wet snowflakes. Warm early, Turning cooler and blustery. Highs in the middle 30s early. Sunday Night, Cloudy, lows in the lower 20s.

Monday, Clearing skies. Highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Monday Night, Clear skies. Lows in the upper 10s to lower 20s.

Tuesday, Warm, Partly Cloudy skies with highs in the lower to middle 30s. Tuesday Night, Partly Cloudy, Lows in the upper 10s to lower 20s.

Wednesday, Warm, Partly Cloudy, increasing clouds with highs in the middle to upper 30s. Wednesday Night, A chance of snow developing, Lows in the middle 20s.

Looking Ahead

The next storm gaining intimidate attention impacts the area as early as next Thursday, it looks like it could be a bigger storm and it really needs to be watched. Right now the model takes the central of the storm through central Iowa, which means our area would be on the all snow side and it would not turn to rain. This storm does hold snow storm potential to it with pretty hefty accumulations. Question is will the models hold it in our area. It will continued to be watched through the week. It turns quite cold for Friday December 21st and remains cold through next weekend and into Christmas. If we get that projected snowstorm next week we would likely have a very good chance at a white Christmas. Cold dry air continues to funnel over Southeastern Minnesota towards the end of December before a warmup as we approach the very end of the month. 

Snowstorm Report Wide-Range In Totals From Major Accumulations In Northern Parts of The Area With 13.0" At Red Wing to Minor Ammounts In The Central and Southern Areas.

Heavy Snow during the afternoon hours of December 9th 2012

A very strong weather system effected the area late this weekend and brought a wide range of snowfall totals here in Southeastern Minnesota ranging from minor to major. Going to the beginning of this storms history, it originated in the Western U.S where it then moved into South Dakota and strengthened into a Winter Storm. The low pressure system tracked right along I-90 and over Southeastern Minnesota. Snow, heavy at times began filtering into Minnesota by late Saturday, and by early Sunday it was in Eastern Minnesota and our area. Snow lasted off an on in intensity through Sunday into early Monday morning. because of this the track of the low there was a well defined line in snowfall amounts that separated the major snowfall amounts which fell in Central Minnesota to the less significant totals that fell in our area, the southern part of our state. Winter Storm warnings were posted for much of Minnesota, with Blizzard Warnings in Southwestern Minnesota. In our area Goodhue and Wabasha counties were initially the only counties under Winter Storm Warnings until the NWS sent Dodge, Olmstead and Winona counties under warnings. This was mostly due to winter storm conditions being met in the far northern parts of these counties. The rest of the area was put under an Advisory.

Photo given credit to Dave W. from Isanti,Minnesota 15.50" fell December 9th

This photo explains the true power of this storm to our north in Central Minnesota.The Minneapolis/St Paul metropolitan area and areas north and south and east into Western Wisconsin which were in the worst of this storm were burried under 12-16" of new snow, enough to shut down area business and schools even well after the storm ended. Record snowfalls were seen at Minneapolis International Airport with this one.The photo above is from a friend of mine from the City of Isanti,Minnesota about 60 miles north of Minneapolis where 15.50" of snow fell. This was initially much more snow they they were expecting for that area, but the storm slowed down which allowed for longer timed accumulations. In Western Minnesota high snowfall amounts were blown by 50MPH winds creating blizzard conditions near the South Dakota boarder, many roads closed in this area because of blowing snow. The cut off from the very heavy snow amounts in central Minnesota to lighter amounts here seems to be Red Wing to Cannon Falls in our area northward. My hometown area received 13.0" of snow from this storm. He said he had 1.30" of water from this incredible snowpack amount!

St Marys Park Rochester,MN December 9th

Here in Southeastern Minnesota we dealt with amounts ranging 13.0" inches in Red Wing to 2.30" in Austin. The cut off line in areas that saw major amounts like this was pretty much North of Zumbrota northward. The farther north you were in the area, the more snow you saw, even 10 miles made a big difference in how much snow you saw. There were multiple impassible side roads in Goodhue County during the storm, but luckily this snow came with no wind so road closers of major were minimal to none. It was also helped the storm hit on a weekend. In Rochester the storm was much more minimal, we had moderate snow off and on with one band of heavy snow pictured at the top of this post. My snowfall accumulation was 4.25"  tieing the highest accumulating snowfall last year which also means this is the still the highest accumulating snowfall I've seen since I moved to Rochester. We are continuing our snowstorm-free streak though, we have yet to see an official Winter Storm here in Rochester which is considered 6.00" of snowfall in one event or more. With this snow, I will admit after going through a record streak of snow free days I kinda missed the look of a true Minnesota winter, and the moisture is very much needed.

The NWS in Channhassen released a really neat map showing snowfall totals across the state. That map can be seen HERE



Interesting Notes from this event:  
Red Wing had the highest reported snowfall amount of 13.0"   
4th longest snow free streak on record in Rochester, 293 days without accumulating snow between February last year and yesterday. 
1st accumulating snow of the season for Rochester and much of the area.
This system tied the highest accumulating snowfall event from last year in Rochester. 
Austin had the lowest reported amount of 2.30"
Rochester continuing streak of snowstorm free days ( 6.00" or more) 2 years since one hit.

Winter Storm Shifting South increasing totals in SE Minnesota-Accumulating snowfall likely 2-5" with spots 6+ inches of snow Sat Night to Sunday, Travel impacts with heavy snow and blowing snow. Brief shot of Arctic Air moves in Monday with highs in the low 10s. Updated x1

Regional Weather View.

It is more then apparent now the big talk in weather for the weekend is a developing Winter Storm forecasted to impact northern parts of the Upper Midwest. A low pressure system will slide through Nebraska, then northeast through Iowa and Wisconsin. This set up will has the potential to bring heavy snows with significant snowfall to Central and Northern Minnesota and Northwestern Wisconsin. With minor accumulations immediately south of this area. Northwest winds will develop behind this storm system which will kick up blowing snow across much of Minnesota and Wisconsin. The strongest shot of Arctic air so far this season will proceed this storm on Monday. Tuesday into much of next week we can expect a slow warming trend with cloudy skies prevailing much of the week.

Local and Metro views.


Winter Storm Shifting south increasing totals across the area, minor to significant accumulations possible!

Saturday, the mentioned storm system will be working its way into our area. Expect most of Saturday to be cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 30s. Snow will start Saturday Night with lows in the upper 20s, Current forecasts are trending this storm farther south, bringing the heaviest accumulating in this storm of snows in the range of 8 to possibly even 10" range over the Twin Cities area. While we here in Southeastern Minnesota will be on the more southern side of this system, meaning accumulations will be in the 2-5" inch range give or take. Still I don't want this system under played for Southeastern Minnesota because of several reasons, its the 1st bigger snow system we have seen in nearly a year due to last years snow drought, and second, heavy snow is likely, and travel impacts will be quite high, and especially heightened due to the 1st real accumulating snow of the season. Sunday is when the heaviest snow will fall, we can expect temperatures in the low 30s during this snowfall. Sunday Night and Monday will be very cold, as a brief arctic airmass flows southeast. highs, Lows Sunday night will approach the lower single digits, and with wind chills, it will feel well below zero at times. Highs Monday will only be in the low to mid 10s with our fresh new snowpack Tuesday through most of next week looks dry, but lots of clouds will stick around with temperatures slowing rising through the week.

Accumulations and timing Breakdown.

Current model data has shifted the storm slightly south bringing the change of significant snowfall into north parts of our area Accumulations still look to be highest in northern part of the area, Cannon Falls and Red Wing areas look to receive 6 or more inches. Which makes it a low end winter storm. Central Area accumulations have been increased to 3-5" this would include areas around The Rochester Metro Area, Dodge Center, and Lake City. Southern areas look now to recive 2-4" of snow, areas in this category include Austin, Winona and Preston. The timing for this snow will start late Saturday after dark. The snow will start off  light but overnight Saturday into early Sunday, moderate to brief Heavy snow will envelop the area. To make conditions worse Northwest winds 25-35MPH will kick up blowing and drifting snow Sunday afternoon. The worst travel times will be late Saturday into early Sunday before 1pm. After 1pm conditions will improve, but it will still be windy blowing and drifting snow. Very cold conditions will develop Sunday Night into Monday with wind chills possibly dropping into the -10.F or colder range, with actual temperatures in the lower single digits Sunday Night rising only to the lower to mid 10s Monday, People in Southeastern Minnesota should take time to prepare for our 1st significant storm system of the winter season and remember winter driving skills and to dress for cold weather. It has been awhile since these conditions have effected the area.

Saturday Night, Snow developing late, could become heavy at times.  Lows in the upper 20s.

Sunday, Snow, Windy with blowing and drifting snow. Snow will be heavy at times early. Strong Northwest winds developing gusting 25 to 35MPH, System total accumulations 2-4" south, 3-5" central, 6+ inches north. Highs in the lower 30s. Sunday Night, Very Cold! Lows falling to the mid to upper single digits. Very cold wind chills well below zero. Winds could gust to 30MPH

Monday, Very Cold! Breezy with wind chills below zero, Partly Sunny with a chance of wind driven flurries, Highs in the lower to mid 10s Monday Night, Increasing clouds, lows in the upper single digits to lower 10s.

Tuesday, Mostly Cloudy skies, with a slight chance of flurries, Warmer with highs in the middle 20s. Tuesday Night, Cloudy skies, lows in the upper 10s to lower 20s.

Wednesday, Mostly Sunny, warmer Highs in the lower 30s. Wednesday Night, lows in the middle 20s.

Looking Ahead

Weather for the rest of the work week looks quiet and dry with fairly seasonably temperatures. The next storm system will possibly come in this weekend. Beyond this and it will not be updated at this time due to the upcoming weather event.

Rain/warmth tomorrow. Then 2 separate systems could bring snow accumulations for the weekend. One Friday, and one Sunday. Early release forecast.

Regional Weather early release forecast.

Thursdays System This is an early release forecast concerning the precipitation for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Multiple weather systems are going to move through over the course of the next 4 days. One will move through tomorrow bringing rain and drizzle, along with a quick shot of warm air with temperatures rising into the 50s. A cold front will move through later tomorrow dropping temperatures back into the 30s.

Fridays System Friday a weak weather system will move through Southern Minnesota and Northern Iowa. Right now it looks to bring light snows to our area. Maybe a dusting to an inch for Southern Minnesota

Sat Nights/Sundays Weather System. Another 3rd weather system will pass through Saturday Night into Sunday. The models have been kinda all over the place with this storms location and amounts. Right now I will stay on the safe side an say 2-3" are definitely a possibility for this system. I will have more updates as they become available.

Record highs broken today as highs reach the lower to middle 60s.

Neighborhood December 3rd 2012

An all to common December scene if you compare the start of this December to last year, Snowless.  A passing warm front along with lack of snow on the ground has allowed temperatures to rise to record levels today into the lower to middle 60s. A record high of 62.F was reported at Rochester Airport, breaking the old record high of 59.F set back in 1962. What was rather odd about this warm up is that 60s were reached even though very little sun was seen. It has one wondering what temperatures could have been reached has the sun shined all day long!

Daffodil sprouting December 3rd 2012

Daffodils in December? This year it is a reality. The flip flops in weather we've been having where we have a week of cold snaps, then a warm up has fooled some of the Daffodils into thinking it is spring! Sprouting daffodils in December is quite odd, but it will not harm them as long as it cools down before they grow to much. What will likely happen here is that they will stop growing until we get longer lasting spring warm ups next year.

 Highs Monday December 3rd.

Overall the areas highest temperature was from Preston which reached a toasty 65.F. The coolest was an unoffical station Byron, which had a high of 58.F