Quiet weather for the rest of the week/weekend. Turning sunny starting off on cool side then warming. Next chance of snow early next week.

Regional Weather View.

The weather is quieting down after yet another snowstorm impacted the southern part of the Midwest. Thius snowstorm re established a thick snowcover that covers the entire region from north to south, a rare observance for this late into winter. The weather for the region will start off rather cloudy with gradual clearing skies across the region. There will be no additional rain or snow through Sunday. This Monday is the next chance for snow, see the looking ahead forecast.

Local and Metro views.

This will end up being a fairly quick forecast because it looks fairly quiet in the short term. A bit of light snow from a passing large snowstorm to our south on Wednesday will leave behind cloudy and cooler conditions for Thursday and Friday. Besides being cloudy and Blustery with winds gusting to 20MPH we can expect highs in the upper 20s with lows cooling to the low to mid 10s both days and night. Skies will begin to clear on Friday. Saturday and Sunday will be the nicer days of the ones to come. Cloudy skies will give way to sunny skies with highs in the upper 20s and lower 30s and lows in the low to middle 10s. The next chance of snow for the area is Monday as described below.











Thursday, Cloudy and cool with blustery north winds to 20MPH at times. Highs in the upper 20s. Thursday Night, Cloudy and blustery with lows in the mid 10s.

Friday, Mostly cloudy and cool with gradual clearing. Blustery north winds gusting to 20MPH at times. Highs in the upper 20s. Friday Night, cool, clear skies, lows in the low to mid 10s.

Saturday, Sunny skies, not as windy and warmer. Highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Saturday Night, Clear skies, lows in the upper single digits to lower 10s

Sunday, Sunny skies, light winds highs in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Sunday Night, Increasing clouds lows in the mid to upper 10s.

Looking Ahead-Next chance of snow on Monday

Both the GFS and European models are coming together on a strong clipper system moving through the Midwest on Monday. At this time, the European model shows the projected path of the storm to start from North Dakota moving on a Southeasterly track directly through Southern Minnesota. This track would favor our area for some of the heaviest amounts. The most snow looks to fall Monday before clearing on Tuesday. We'll have to see now this storm/system progresses over the next few days to make estimates at accumulations. The European model shows After next Tuesday weather conditions begin to turn sunny quiet and pleasant. It snows a spring like warm up for the middle part of next week with temperatures possibly approaching 40 degrees a few days, especially towards weeks end. It also shows a chance of rain developing Friday March 8th with the next storm system to arrive to our region.  However is should be noted all models do show a warming tend next week, but the models show disagreement on the extend of the warm up especially for system at the March 8th time frame. Level of trust in the models is quite low at this time.

February 22nd Midwest Snowstorms effect on Southeast Minnesota Report 4-9" of snow accumulated area wide.

Snowy conditions February 22nd 2012

 A blanket of 4-9" of new snow now covers the ground here in Southeastern Minnesota, which came in a storm that effected a larger part of the Midwest states. This storms history goes back to California where it originated. The storm organized into a major snowstorm near Colorado and spread significant heavy snows across a very large part of the country.

 NWS Snowcover Map

The storm first effected Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska. Kansas City reported 10-12" of snow,  which is abnormal for that region this time of year. The storm went on Northeast to Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin Illinois were it continued to produce significant snowfall. The storm started to loose strength in Wisconsin where it produced lesser amounts. The storm produced a huge swath of snow across the country from just north of Oklahoma City,OK to Duluth,MN an extensive area that snow has snowcover. The above map shows it very well.

St Marys Park February 22nd 2013

Here in Southeastern Minnesota, snow began to move in around midnight Thursday Night. The snow pushed in and it quickly became heavy and lasted through the night time hours. By daybreak Friday most of the accumulation had occurred leaving hazardous travel and road crews having to find places to pile snow. The highest accumulations in the area were in desolated sections of the western parts of the area, but everyone saw at least 4" The snow had a "spring-like" feel to it as temperatures warmed to the upper 20s and lower 30s as the sunshine broke through the clouds. Putting some numbers out there for Rochester, 7.00" fell at my station with a water content of 0.41" This was the biggest storm in 2 winters. This month we have now seen 15.50" of snow which is way above the average of 8.70". For the season we have picked up 30.50" Well above last years 18" for the winter. We have 8.50" of snow on the ground with a water snowpack content of 0.96" so we have got some moisture for the spring melt.

Snowfall Reports

Entire Area
Mantorville 9.0"
Claremont 8.20"
Kasson 7.0"
Hammon 7.0"
Lewiston 7.0"
Harmony 7.0"
Highland 7.0"
Adams 7.0"
Lanesbro 6.60"
 Le Roy 6.50"
Zumbrota 6.50"
Lake City 6.0"
Fountain 6.0"
Winona 5.90"
Wabasha 5.0"
Spring Valley 5.0"
Grand Meadow 5.0"
Cannon Falls 4.20"
Red Wing 3.80"

Rochester Metro

  Byron 7.50"
Rochester Airport 7.20"
West Downtown Rochester 7.0"


 

Details on the upcoming Thursday snowstorm. Heavy snow likely with 4-8" accumulation. Snow will effect travel on Friday. Dry for the weekend before setting up for a 2nd storm on Monday-Tuesday?

Regional Weather View

Attention is currently on a large storm system which will impact a very large part of the Upper Midwest coming up in the next couple days. A low pressure system coming from the Colorado area will move ENE in the vicinity of Missouri and Illinois, spreading widespread heavy snows across a large part of the states of Nebraska, Missouri, Iowa, South Dakota, Southern Minnesota, Western Wisconsin and Western Illinois. Major accumulations are possible in parts of Nebraka with this storm with amounts slowly tapering off as the storm moves northeast. What is surprising about this storm is the large area it is forecasted to hit. It has been awhile since this much of the Midwest has been looking at the threat for a snowstorm. It will remain dry and on the slightly cool side after the passage of this storm as the region possibly sets up for another storm on Monday and Tuesday of next week, possibly effecting the same areas as this one.

Local Weather and Metro View.

The expected snowstorm will effect us here in Southeastern Minnesota. Heavy snow and sigificant accumulations effecting travel will be the main impacts from this event. What will be different about this event is winds will not be a problem like in past storms we've had. Challenges with this system are models are consistent with showing this system loosing some steam as the low moves northeast into Illinois, with the heaviest amounts well to our southwest in Nebraska and Iowa. Timing of the snow will be well after dark Thursday. Models seem to keep any snow forming coming into the area before 11pm Thursday night, however once the band moves in, snow will turn heavy at a fast rate. Heaviest snow will be Early Friday Morning effecting the early morning drive to work. Snow will taper off later Friday after afternoon and conditions will improve. There wont a significant amount of cold air behind this storm for the weekend. Skies will be cloudy with temperatures in the middle to upper 20s. Lows in the low to mid 10s both nights.

Thursday-Fridays storm accumulation and impacts

Accumulations will be 4-8" all around the entire area. The higher end of these amounts will be south of I-90 with lower amounts being north. Impacts related to the storm will be focused around heavy snow restricting visibilities and impacting travel Friday as well as the significant amounts listed. Winds will not be a problem in this storm as they have in past storms. 

Wednesday, Sunny and cold. Light winds. Highs in the mid to upper 10s. Wednesday Night. Increasing clouds, lows in the mid single digits.

Thursday, Cloudy skies. Highs in the middle 20s. Thursday Night. Snow developing and becoming heavy at times. Lows in the upper 10s.

Friday, Snow, heavy at times in the morning. Storm total accumulations 4-8" Friday Night. Mostly Cloudy, lows in the middle 10s.

Saturday, Cloudy and cool. Highs in the mid to upper 20s. Saturday Night, Cloudy skies. Lows in the mid to upper 10s

Sunday, Mostly Cloudy skies. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Sunday Night, Cloudy skies. Lows in the lower 20s

Monday, A chance of snow. Possibly heavy at times. Highs in the 30s lows in the 20s.

Looking Ahead- Snowstorm threat increasing for Monday

Monday into Tuesday is the next chance for snow, and right now the models are coming together on another snowstorm impacting our area. It is too early to go into exact details, but it looks like more then 4" at this point, the snow tapers on Tuesday. Following this storm, it looks like skies will be mostly cloudy with temperatures slightly on the cool side through Saturday of this upcoming week. Sunday 2nd of March, maybe a slight chance of snow, accumulations do look very light. Towards the start of the week of Monday March 6th a ridge of high pressure starts to build to the west, with warming air building on the west coast possible moving east and delivering spring like warmth after the 1st week of the month. More on this later. 



 

Sunday into Mondays storm system 0.30- to over 1" of rain seen.

A look down a Rochester sidewalk Monday February 12th 2013

A strong storm system effected Minnesota Sunday and Monday this week greatly effecting the weather across the state. Northwest Minnesota saw the worst of the storm. Blizzard conditions with heavy snows totaling 15 inches I-94 was closed due to blowing snow with 45MPH winds seen. Our area was on the warm side of the low pressure system so we saw rain and warm temperatures. This system did not cause any issues in the weather department as the low pressure system passes through Northern Iowa then directly over the ares Sunday evening keeping the event mostly rain. The location of the low spread sent temperatures into the upper 30s with an area of light to moderate rain mixing with snow at times throughout the area on Sunday before tapering to drizzle. Eventually this drizzle did turn back light snow late Sunday into Monday but by then moisture was lacking so very low amounts were seen not even enough to have a decent report! Rainfall amounts on the other hand ranged  from 3 10ths to over 1 inch depending on where your located, western and northern areas saw the bulk of the rain. The rain melting a good chuck of the snowcover in the area and did little in the way of adding to it, however the area did not loose all of its snowcover and the entire area still has some degree of snow on the ground. Precipitation types changed several times throughout the duration of the storm so to make reporting easier rainfall amounts will include the total precipitation snow water in the rainfall reports.

Interesting notes: 

Snow depth here in Rochester is 3.0" with a water content of 0.47" 
More events this winter in our area have been rain and not snow.
Snowfalls over the winter so far are less then half of winters normal total.
Snowcover throughout the area ranging from 2-4"



Rainfall Reports

 Red Wing 1.18"
Cannon Falls 0.73"
Winona 0.64"
Dodge Center 0.63"
Preston 0.56"
W Downtown Rochester 0.42"
Austin 0.41" 
Rochester Airport 0.31"


 

Depleting snowcover next to the garage February 12th 2013

Behind the storm there was a lack of cold air which is more typical of this time of year. The weather was actually quite beautiful today and it felt great after the cold temps earlier this month. With plenty of sunshine with light south winds moving over the area temperatures warmed into a pre spring-like mid to upper 30s. The slight feeling of spring, or at least the anticipation of it was definitely in the air! Interesting note, Today's light winds, rising sun angle and sunny skies allowed for significant urban heating to take place with in the city of Rochester. Temperatures across many inner city stations were in the upper 30s with an isolated 40 or two near the Downtown areas including my station while other stations outside of the city remained in the lower 30s


Highs seen February 12th 2013

 Rochester Metro
West Downtown Rochester 41.F
Northwest Rochester 40.F
North River Court 38.F
Elton Hills 37.F
Quarry hill 37.F
Oronoco 36.F
Hart Farms 35.F
Byron 34.F
Rochester Airport 33.F
Stewartville 33.F

Entire Area

 Zumbro Falls 37.F
Red Wing 36.F
Cannon Falls 35.F
 Austin 35.F
Dodge Center 34.F
Winona 34.F
Preston 33.F
Canton 32.F



  

Midwest Storm system to bring a mess of first sleet//freezing rain then rain, then snow to Southeastern Minnesota which could cause some problems. 0.25-0.50" rain then Minor accumulations of snow come Monday

Regional View

Attention nationally is on a 2013 Blizzard effecting the northeast U.S but will soon be turned to the next major winter storm with a low pressure system expected to impact the Upper Midwest starting tomorrow. The low will track from Nebraska across Southern Minnesota into Central Wisconsin. The track of this storm will produce major snowfall accumulations in South Dakota, Central Minnesota and Far Northern Wisconsin with the potienal for dangerous blizzard conditions across Western Minnesota. Significant snowfall will be seen totals in Central Minnesota and the rest of Northwest Wisconsin. The weather pattern will take a turn to a quieter one come Tuesday and Wednesday when sunshine will come back into the picture.

Local and Metro views

Storm will bring a mixture of rain/sleet/snow to our area.

What will this storm mean for our area? The answer to this is a mess. The center of the low will piratically pass directly over our area bringing us a wide range in precipitation from rain to sleet snow and freezing rain. Lets break this down into a timeline. Most Saturday will be precipitation free with highs in the mid to upper 30s with cloudy skies. Saturday Night freezing rain changing to rain will move in, this could cause a few issues up until the temperature rises above freezing. Sunday will be mild, temperatures will be in the upper 30s with rain and drizzle in the first part of the day. Some of the showers could have embedded thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts could approach quarter to half inch range. The problem if temperatures stay lower we may have a problem with accumulating ice. In either case Late Sunday a sharp cold front will approach and pass through temperatures will fall through the 30s changing rain to sleet then snow, the snow will last into the first part of Monday before ending with a few inches of accumulation the worst accumulation will remain north of our area up and around the Twin Cities. Conditions will start to improve Monday afternoon but it will remain windy with eventual clearing skies with highs in the mid 20s and lows in the low 10s Expect Tuesday and Wednesdays weather to be quiet once again with plenty of sunshine and seasonable temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s and lows in the low to mid 10s Winds will be light both days.

Impacts/accumulations

Problems facing us with this storm are Ice accumulation potienal which could reach 0.25" with freezing rain which could cause slippery travel 0.50" total precip amounts a possibility with total Snowfall accumulation 1-3" across the most of the area with 2-4" across the north. Strong winds on Monday gusting to 35MPH, which could cause some blowing and drifting of new snow cover that may fall.

Saturday, Mild, Partly sunny with highs in the mid 30s. Saturday Night, Sleet/Freezing rain developing changing to rain as temps rise above 32.F

Sunday, Freezing rain changing to rain and drizzle, thunder possible. Highs in the upper 30s. Sunday Night, Turning cold and windy, Rain changing to sleet/snow, lows in the upper 20s Rainfall amounts 0.25-0.50. Winds could gust to 25MPH

Monday, Light snow/blowing snow, Storm total accumulation 1-3" south 2-4" north, Windy and colder with highs in the mid 20s. Monday Night, Colder and breezy, Clearing skies with lows in the low to mid 10s 

Tuesday, Seasonable, Sunny skies, not as windy with highs in the low to mid 30s. Tuesday Night, Clear skies, lows in the middle 10s.

Wednesday, Pleasant, Partly Cloudy skies with highs in the low to mid 30s. Wednesday Night, Increasing clouds, lows in the upper 10s to lower 20s.

Looking Ahead

Next chance of snow for us arrives Friday of this week the 15th as a low pressure system skirts across Southern Minnesota, this could bring a few inches of accumulation.  The weekend looks sunnier, drier and seasonable. With a warming trend for the start of next week. Monday and Tuesday the 11th and 12th may be quite sunny and nice. After this point we get a few shots at a few cool. but not cold waves of air through the end of that week with occasional chance for light snows. No major snowstorms or cold snaps or warm ups for take matter. The forecast for the middle part of this month looks fairly typical.

Sneek peak at Sundays/Mondays storm. Were likely to be in the warm side and we will see sleet, rain, possibly even thunderstorms and very little in the way of snow ammounts.

Regional Weather View weekend sneakpeak

The map above is showing the system concerning this weekends expected event it's a sneakpeak, but a good idea what the models are coming into agreement with at this point. The models take the low pressure from this storm up in the Twin Cities area or just southeast of that area. This throws a plume of mild air northeast directly into our area and puts Southeastern Minnesota in a nearly all rain event. The GFS model shows the event happening in this order and time. Sunday Afternoon Widespread rain across the area with possibly some thunder. Temperatures warm to near 40.F Rainfall amounts 0.25-0.50 Early Monday after midnight, Cold front moves through, winds turn northwest and become strong temperatures drop below freezing light rains quickly end turning to light flurries, little to no snow accumulation. Any precipitation will be ending by Monday afternoon leaving behind a cloudy breezy day with highs in the middle 20s. Tuesday will be seasonal and Sunny with highs in the mid to upper 20s. A official forecast will be issued later in the weekend.

February 5th early morning very heavy snow burst delivers 2-3" of snow in short period

Photo of the heavy snow early morning February 5th 2013

 We have definitely been thrown into a winter pattern that we have not been seeing for quite some time. This morning yet another clipper delivered a burst of very heavy snow dropping a widespread 2-3" across all areas, with the highest amounts being seen in central and east part of the area. Anyone that had to leave for work or classes before 9am was caught in this very heavy snow. The snow coming down at such a high rate it actually caused travel delays. The snow was from a clipper system and warm front in which the clipper was enhanced by abundant moisture which is located over the area. To put it in protective, most of the snowfall accumulations across the area occurred over an hours time span!

Backyard February 5th 2013

Looking at the backyard we have finally got a real winter scene going on out there, something we've been lacking since I moved here. This mornings snow burst brought 2.50" of snow making the monthly ( and weekly) total to 6.75" this is well over half of February average snow in under 6 days! The seasonal total has now been bumped to 21.75" The current snow depth here in Rochester is 5.50"

Area snowfall reports

Mantorville 3.50"
Theilman 3.50"
Cannon Falls 3.00"
Elba 3.30"
Peterson 2.70"
Hammond 2.50"
West Downtown Rochester-My Station 2.50"
Pine Island 2.20"
SE Rochester 2.00"
Winona 2.00"
Elton 1.50"
Red Wing 1.50"
Lanesbro 1.40"
Austin 1.20"

Finally starting to be more like Winter thanks to the Clipper system parade

Rochester Neighborhood February 4th 2013

Were finally getting a real taste of winter here in Southeastern Minnesota. Something that has been significantly lacking the past couple of winters. Because of the jet stream being located just southwest of the area and systems available to ride it southwestward one behind each other like floats in a parade! 3 clipper systems have pasted through in the past 3 days. Friday through Monday we've been getting a system moving through each evening. Each system dropped between 1-3" slowly adding to the snow depth. All areas got a taste of theses snowfalls and no one missed out. Here in Rochester at my station the 1st system on Friday Night into Saturday dropped 1.75", the second one dropped 1.00" Saturday Night into Sunday Morning, and the final system Sunday Night into Monday Morning dropped 1.50" making for a total of 4.25" the past 3 days. The water content of the snow was very low but ranging between 0.07" to 0.03" but the snow depth on the ground has risen to 3.00" This is the perfect way to get snowfalls and add to the snow depth without being so much snow that it causes delays! The clipper system parade is not leaving just yet as we expect more snowfalls tonight before the pattern quiets down and remains mild.

Snowfall accumulations the past 3 days at my station

Friday-Saturday System 1.75" 0.07 water content"
Saturday-Sunday System 1.00" 0.03" water content
Sunday-Monday System 1.50"  0.10" water content

All events totaled 4.25"

Note: At my station- We have officially surpassed last winters snowfall total of 18.70" we have gotten 19.25" of snow so far this winter.

February 4th snowfall totals

 Lyle 2.80"
Winona 1.80"
Rochester Airport 1.70"
Lanesbro 1.70"
Kasson 1.60"
Claremont 1.60"
Aultura 1.60"
West Downtown Rochester 1.50"
Byron 1.40"
Preston 1.30"
Austin 1.00"
Wabasha 1.00"

Biggest system arrives tonight of the Clipper System Parade 3-5" expected. Next system arrives Monday followed by a warm up into the 30s by Tuesday. Updated X1

Regional Weather View

Continued active pattern at least for the northern part of the Upper Midwest as several clipper systems move in from the northwest each bringing minor accumulations to the areas in blue above. The clipper systems track looks to shift northward with the passing of each one so the southern portion of the areas highlighted above will see less snow. Temperatures will slowly become mild as warmer temperatures move in from the southwest. Highs will be in the 20s north 30s central and 40s south region wide.

Local and Metro views

Note: Forecast has been updated for tonight's system. Only the local view map has been updated.

Clipper System Parade for Southern Minnesota. 

System Tonight: next storm arrives one Sunday Night and will be our biggest system of this "clipper system parade" Snow will begin late this afternoon and into night and will be heavy at times, but little wind is expected with it.  Accumulations will be 3-5"  throughout the entire area. Snow will end Monday Morning. The next clipper arrives Monday night and Tuesday, As mentioned above the stormtrack will shift northward slowly through the week so the northeastern part of the area will have the potienal for the most accumulation and the snowfall amounts with each passing system will become less and less as each one moves through. The models indicate we have the potienal to pick up 2" in the southwestern part of the area over then next 5 days to 5" over the northeastern part of the area over the next 5 days. These snowfalls should not cause too much in the way of delays. Temperatures will be on a warming trend and will start off cold with highs in the upper 10s on Saturday then warm to the upper 20s to lower 30s come Wednesday. Lows will start off in the single digits then warm to the 10s

Sunday, Gusty winds and colder with snow developing late with cold wind chills. Highs in the mid 10s. Winds gusting to 25MPH early Sunday Night,  snow, moderate heavy at times. Lows in the low 10s

Monday, A chance of snow early then ending, system total accumulation 3-5" Warmer Mostly cloudy in the afternoon Highs in the low to mid 20s. Monday Night, A chance of snow, cloudy with lows in the mid 10s.

Tuesday, A chance of snow. Accumulations 1-2" Highs in the upper 20s Tuesday Night, Mostly Cloudy with lows in the middle 10s

Wednesday, Partly sunny skies, highs in the lower 30s. Wednesday Night, Cloudy skies, lows in the upper 10s to lower 20s

Looking Ahead-Not updated

The end of the week looks dry and seasonable to maybe slightly mild. Saturday and Sunday the 9/10th is our next chance of precipitation as a system to our south moves in. Right now it looks to start off as maybe freezing rain or sleet then move then change over to snow. Might be enough to call it a winter storm but the bulk of the accumulations at this point to to be south and east of our area. It does bring in much colder temperatures behind it for the start of the work week the 11th, but it doesn't stay cold for long temperatures warm up to seasonable levels as we enter a drier pattern for the middle part of that week which lasts through to the end. The models are hinting at a big warm up on Saturday the 16th with dry conditions and pleasant temperatures that last through Sunday the 17th but it is so far away it might as well be consider a figment of the models imagination.