Cooler weather this weekend with some chances at light snows. Light amounts only. Then looking towards a sigificant warm up next week, 50s for sure!

Regional Weather View.

Atteintion in the Upper Midwest is turning to the eastern part where another strong dynamic storm system will bring heavy snows in Eastern Wisconsin where sigificant snow is possible. Heavy rain and thunderstorms even severe weaher is possible in Illnoise which could cause quite a few issues. Further west a cold front will follow this storm brining the changes for light snows extending back into Iowa and Minnesota. A sigificant warm up will take place starting early next week when warm air will be forced into the region from the west.

Local and Metro views.

Locally we can expect a cooler weekend ahead with the threat for off and on light snows. Friday will be mild but dreary with plent of clouds, highs will be in the upper 30s with lows in the mid 20s. Saturday will be breezy and much cooler, The threat of light snow will continue. All this snow will be under an inch and will not cause issueds can could even melt on contact. Highs will be in the 30s on Saturday, with gusty winds to 30MPH at times making for a cool wind chill. Lows cool to the 10s Saturday Night. Sunday will be a bit warmer and less windy. Under partly sunny skies, highs will be in the mid 30s with lows in the low 20s. Monday will be the start of a beautiful patter, It will be sunny and bright with highs in the low 40s and lows in the upper 20s. More on the sigificant warm up thats in store can be found below.

Friday, A chance of light snow otherwise cloudy with highs in the upper 30s. Friday Night,  Cloudy skies lows in the low 20s.

Saturday, Breezy and chilly, Cloudy with a chance of light snows. Accumulations 1" or less. Highs in the low 30s Winds could gust to 30MPH. Saturday Night, Cloudy skies breezy with lows in the upper 10s.

Sunday, Sunday a bit warmer, Partly Sunny skies with highs in the mid 30s. Sunday Night, Partly Cloudy with lows in the upper 10s.

Monday, Much nicer! Sunny skies and mild with highs in the low 40s. Monday Night, Clear skies with lows in the upper 20s

Looking Ahead Spring ahead? Sigificant warm up next week most of next week in the 50s!

A very beautiful week is expected next week as warm but dry air surges in from the west brining very mild and spring-like sunny weather. This warm up will come in quite fast as we could be enjoying highs as warm as near 60.F as early as Tuesday! Warm air will completely ingulf the Upper Midwest and remain that way through all of next week which means most days will be spent in the 50s. There is a chance of rain showers with a coo front on Friday, The weekend of the 10th looks dry and mild on Saturday before Sunday the 12th gets a bit more interesting, the model shows a chance for thunderstorms and heavy rain. It driest out with no cold air to be found behind that system. There could be another chance of rain on the 16th, then it looks like continue mild into the 17th. The looks to be a season changing pattern setting up, but only time will tell what our weather does after this warm up

Febuary 28-29th Sigificant Midwest Storm-SE Minnesota Sigificant ice brings down many large tree limbs. Heavy rainfall ammounts over and inch with 1st Thunderstorms of the season.

System Radar View February 29th 2012 Image from SPC

A Significant weather system which packed a punch in nearly every start in the Upper Midwest effected much of the region today. The biggest effect in our area was significant ice accumulations causing isolated power outages. Power outages were reported in Eastern Wabasha County around Reads Landing and parts of the city of Rochester. Ice accumulations on trees also lead to widespread area wide minor to significant tree damage, especially for evergreen trees. Heavy, drought easing rains in excess of 1 inch were seen most of the area bringing creeks and river are back up. The last thing to note is the area also got the first official thunderstorms of the season occurred late last night as convective from the storms in Nebraska earlier in the evening moved northeast all the way across Iowa and into Southern Minnesota. Above the radar image showing 2 vigorous bands of precip. One falling as rain in Southern Minnesota to heavy snow in Northern Wisconsin, the other a wave of heavy rain Thunderstorms in Iowa, which eventually made their way Northeast and gave us our 1st thunderstorms of the season! The low can be seen in South Dakota.

 Front Yard View February 29th 2012.

Here in Rochester going to college Tuesday Morning we had light snow already starting around 1:30 the intensity of the snow picked up but none of it accumulated. Around a half hour later that it changed to freezing rain which became moderate at times. The problem was the temperature was hovering right around 32.F which thankfully kept the roads wet, but thick ice started to developed on trees and power lines which caused problems related with this described below. Eventually around 12AM once the center of low pressure moved into Minnesota warmer air was nudged northward which warmed temperature has warmed to 33.F which ended the icing problem, We had a brief break between precip bands before thunderstorms in a band of moderate to heavy precip moved in around 2:00AM. This produced the 1st thunderstorm of the season at my location, and many other across the area! The rain was so heavy for a time that local news reported that slow storm drains were causing some minor flooding on Broadway Ave. In total this system dropped 1.62" of rain here in Rochester and trace amounts of snow/sleet. This is the highest amount of rain since August, and actually the highest amount since I moved down here!

 Significant Tree damage from ice accumulations

Tree Damage in St Marys Park February 29th 2012

 Ice accumulations and falling tree limbs and problems associated with this was the biggest problem with this storm has in our area, Moderate to even heavy freezing rain at times coupled with breezy southeast winds caused tree limbs to sag and snap. The branches on our neighbors tree were hanging so low and one point it was almost touching there roof, around the time of this we were having power flickers. The bulk of the damage was done to evergreen trees, especially the White Pines. Driving around Wednesday It seemed that every pine grove had at least some branches down, some lost a large amount of branches.

Large branches down St Marys Park February 29th 2012

In this photo two large branches can be seen one in the foreground and one in the background. These old cedar trees at the park took a hard hit with this ice there were multiple big branches down across the park, the biggest one was at least 10 inches in diameter, and would not be able to be removed without first cutting it up.

Large branch down near RCTC February 29th 2012

This is a large branch that I saw down in a long row of White Pines in the area of my school, this branch was around 10 inches in diameter as well.

White Pine Damage February 29th 2012

This was the worse damage that I came across. This tree lost many large branches and much of its top. Most of the branches up and down the tree on the winded southeast side of the tree were broken.

Storm Total Rainfall

The areas received very beneficial rains, The highest area rainfall was more then 2 inches in Reg Wing! Everyone got over at least a half inch, which will help with our drought conditions.


Other regions effected.

 Photo of the heavy snow near my hometown Turtle Lake,WI February 29th


This was a very dynamic storm becuase while we were getting heavy rain, some areas were getting very heavy snow with major snowfall amounts. Even 115 miles made a huge difference, my hometown area had heavy snowfall amounts around 9 inches with strong winds. My dad and family  said the snow was extremely wet in nature. Even further north very dangerous blizzard conditions with power outages were reported with this storm around Duluth, which reported around 7 inches of snow with winds up to 60MPH! people who are interested in hearing more about the weather in this area should see Tim's Weather Blog

Very strong storm system effecting the state tomrrow! Windy with sleet and snow, early, minor accumulations then quickly changing to rain, thunderstorms possible - Up to half inch of rainfall possible.

Regional weather view.

A Dangerous Major Winter Storm is the top of the story effecting the Upper Midwest, Major snowfall accumulations are likely in Northern Minnesota and Wisconsin Blizzard conditions are likely in Western Minnesota with significant accumulations along to the south of this. In Iowa, Southern Minnesota and Central Wisconsin it will start off as sleet and quickly change to rain, where thunderstorms are possible. Wednesday whatever precip is left will turn to all snow region wide, but by then moisture will move off to the east. Thursday looks to have clearing skies with fair temps region wide.

Local and Metro views.

Note: This is a difficult storm to forecast for, This forecast is subject to significant chances depends on the exact track of this low.

Tomorrow a strong weather system will work across the state. Starting Tuesday a strong low pressure will track across Northern Iowa before pushing northward into Southern Minnesota. This will mean that our area will fall under the warm side of this storm keeping the high snow totals well to our north. We can expect that Precip will start in the afternoon on Tuesday as Sleet and snow possibly even freezing rain as temps start off below freezing, quick 1-2" may accumulate. Then as the low moves into Minnesota warm air will be forced northward and rising temps to the upper 30s will change any snowfall to rain Tuesday Night overnight, some of this rain could be Moderate at times with the threat for an isolated thunderstorm or two, so do not be surprised if you hear thunder Tuesday Night! Wednesday as the low moved away temps will fall below freezing any left over precip will change to snow, but by the time this happens the heaviest precip will be east of the area. It will not cool off much behind this storm as Thursday will be partly sunny and in the mid 30s.


Storm Impacts and totals accumulations and rainfall amounts.

The biggest Impacts for our area could be slippery roads during the sleet/snow mixture that occurs briefly Tuesday Evening. Roads will become much better once the temperature rises and it changes to rain. Total rainfall amounts could be as much as half inch for our area, especially in and imbedded thunderstorms. Winds will also be strong southeast winds to 35MPH. Snowfall accumulations will be 1-2" for central and southern areas, with 3-4" for Cannon Falls and Red Wing. Much of this snow will melt soon after it falls. As the low moves away a another quick inch or two of snow could accumulation and blow around Wednesday Morning.

Tuesday, Windy, Could with Sleet and Snow developing early in the evening changing to rain, some rain, Thunder is possible. Highs in the upper 30s. 1-2" snow central and south 3-4" north. Winds could gust to 35MPH Tuesday Night, Windy Rain with isolated thunderstorms, possible mixed with sleet at times, some could be moderate at times. Lows in the mid 30s. cooling to the upper 20s near morning. Winds could gust to 35MPH

Wednesday, Cooler and windy, Rain changing to light snow in the morning,  1-2" possible. Some blowing snow possible. Highs in the low 30s. Wednesday Night, lingering Flurries, chilly, breezy with lows in the low 20s.

Thursday, Warmer and not as windy. Clearing skies with highs in the mid to upper 30s. Thursday Night, Partly Cloudy lows in the mid 20s.


Other Areas Effected

Even though our has a high chance to escape the worst of this storm this Other parts of our state will be greatly impacted by this major winter storm! Blizzard conditions and very high snowfall amounts are possible  with this storm in Northern Minnesota. Here are some some links to other areas that will be effected.

Tim's Weather Blog-Duluth,MN 

Looking Ahead

Looking ahead to the end of the week we see a chance of another weather system on Friday, which could possibly bring rain and snow to our area. It is too far away to get details on at this time. It cools off and dries out for the 1st part of next weekend. Then the models hint at a sigificant dry warm up as we head into Early March, tempetues around the range of 50 to 60 degrees. around the 5th. The the models get interesting around my Birthday on the 8th the model shows as storm system arriving during the height of this mild airmass, spreading heavy rains across Minnesota. The models show it will remain mild behind this system, and really it doesn't even cool off as we go into Mid March, could this be a very early Spring? Time will tell.

Late Winter Blooms, 1st flower of 2012 winter season opened today. Stunning Pre March blooms, by far the earliest I've seen!

Yellow Snow Crocus flower along the warm southern foundation of the garage February 27th 2012

 The 1st bloom of 2012 opened today and its not even March yet, a true sign just how mild this winter has been. The 1st bloom goes to this Yellow Snow Crocus along the warm southern foundation of the garage. These actually sprouted in January due too very warm conditions and lack of snow, since then we've only had off and on bouts of winter which kept them from growing much until the past few weeks. Yesterdays high of 48.F really pushed it along, although today was a cooler 35.F, the plentiful sunshine caused it to open. It's not just Crocus that are growing, I've also seen Hyacinths and Daffodils buds showing, and Tulips with 1st leaves. I've also seen Day lilies sprouting. Today's bloom goes down as earliest bloom I've ever seen the garden, not only effected by this mild winder but also influenced by the new southerly latitude I now live in. Locals have told me Crocus typically come into bloom at the end of March here in Southern Minnesota and blooms from them in February is unheard of! At my hometown the 1st-2nd week of April was more typical for Crocuses

Very warm and very windy day across the area today, with both High temps and peak wind gusts both near 50!

 Flag blowing in strong southwest winds on a warm and very windy February 26th 2012

It was very windy and warm day across the area today as both high temperatures and peak wind gusts were both near 50, and in one cause of wind, the Byron Station had a peak gust of 50MPH today. The good news is there were no reports of damage anywhere from this wind. Both today's wind and the warm was in response to a strong winter storm hitting northern Minnesota, which is dropping quite a bit of snow, around 6-10" north of Duluth. No snow to be found here in Southern Minnesota, though that will be changing starting next week.

St Marys Park, West Downtown Area

It was very windy all day today out of the southwest, but the strongest winds occurred around 2pm here in Rochester. The Rochester Airport recorded a 48MPH gust, and the weather station on top of St Marys Hospital right behind the house had a 47MPH gust. I am finding out that the more open terrain here in Southern Minnesota leads to quite a bit more wind compared to my hometown becuase wind gusts during wind events it seems to easily reach over 40MPH. This is the 3rd time this season winds have gone over 40MPH and the 2nd time higher then 45MPH.

Swelling Silver Maple buds February 26th 2012

The continued warmth is leading to many things normally associated more with the end of next month to start now. The buds on Silver Maples are starting to swell! Today's high was 48.F here at my station.

 High Temperatures and Highest wind gusts today.

Today's highest wind gust was 50MPH from Byron, and the highest temperature was in inner city Rochester areas with highs around 48.F

quite Mild and windy for Sunday Mid 40s for highs, then cooler but still nice for the start of next week. Major storm system Tuesday-Wed? Early predictions.

Regional weather view.

Our new active pattern is continuing this week, we have a significant winter storm impacting Northern Minnesota Sunday producing significant accumulations in Northern Minnesota. The of precip on the southern side of the low will lead to a warm and windy day across Southern Minnesota, Wisconsin, South Dakota, and Iowa. All eyes will be on a much larger storm system moving into the Upper Midwest by Tuesday

Local and Metro views

Note: There will only be a forecast for the next 2 days due a significant storm system with uncertainty taking shape for midweek next week. See looking ahead forecast for some details.

For the start of a new week we can expect a mild note. Sunday will feature partly sunny skies with strong southerly winds. Our temperatures will be quite a bit higher then Saturday as highs rise into the middle 40s. Most areas will stay precip free as the storm system Sunday passes to our north, but there is a chance the far northern areas may see a bit of precip, with up to a trace possible. Monday will be a bit cooler as the cold front from the system to our north pushes through, winds will be breezy out of the west. Highs will be in the mid 30s with partly cloudy skies and increasing clouds, with lows in the mid 20s. Snow from our next weeks system could start as late as overnight Monday Night.

Sunday, Mild but windy Partly sunny skies with highs in the mid 40s. Winds could gust to 35MPH Sunday Night, Partly Cloudy with lows in the low 20s.

Monday, A bit cooler. Partly Cloudy with increasing clouds. Breezy with highs in the mid 30s. Monday Night, Cloudy, with a chance of snow late.

Looking Ahead- Increasing chances for a Major Winter Storm for Tuesday and Wednesday!

 Early predictions for Wednesday Storm.

Chances for a high impact major winter storm are becoming likely for the Upper Midwest! There is still some uncertainty right now, but currently models have a deadly winter storm moving out of the Rockies and passing through Northwest Iowa before making a turn to the Northeast through just south of the Minnesota/Iowa Boarder. The track has shifted south slightly, meaning that our area will have the chance for rain snow sleet mixture with the threat for significant ( snows 6" or more ) along with high winds.This track keeps the heaviest snowfall north of our area hitting cities to our north like the Twin Cities, St Cloud and Eau Claire hard with very high, major accumulations. There is still time for some shifting to occur so those with plans for this week will want to stay tuned weather conditions. After this storm it could remain active before it quiets down and eventually warms up. This is as far as I will go for now.

Drought Update. Stubborn drought continues to effect the area. Very little improvement area wide over the past few months as moderate to severe drought being seen in most of the area.

February 24th Drought Monitor.

Drought has been a continued to be a developing story here in Southeastern Minnesota since late last summer, and it is starting to become a real concern. This winter so far has brought little to no improvement in our deficit which in most areas it continues to build. According to the drought monitor above, Most of Dodge, Southwestern Goodhue and Western Mower counties are in severe drought effecting areas like Dodge Center, Pine Island and Austin In these areas most places are between 8 and 10" below normal for water precip. Moderate drought covers the rest of Mower, Western Olmstead, Fillmore and Wabasha counties and, Central Goodhue counties effecting Cannon Falls, Rochester, Preston and Spring Valley Most areas here are between 7 and 8" below normal. The rest of the area is in slight drought meaning around 2-3" below normal accept that far southeastern part of Winona County which has escaped all drought completely.

Photo of backyard grass February  23th 2012

Here in Rochester the airport is 8 inches below normal from where we should be in water precipitation since May 1st. Looking at my data for the winter so far, we are behind by more then 20 inches in snowfall. Where we should have received around 40 inches of snowfall by now, we have only gotten 18.60" so far since November, and only 3.00" of water has come out of it, no more then 3 tenths at a time. It has been over 5 months since I have seen Precip that has amounted to at least an inch.The effects of drought have been very little becuase of the time of year, rivers and lakes could really be seeing it this spring if they do not received the normal amount snowmelt water they typically do. We could also really use spring moisture so farmers can grow crops. Hopefully with the pattern turning more active lately we can get some moisture in our region, which is very much needed.

More information about the drought can be found at NWS in La  Crosse drought page