Warm winter continues. Beautiful late January weather sunshine and widespread mid to upper 40s seen.

 

Downtown Rochester snow less January 31st 2012

Beautiful weather has made its return to the area this week with plenty of sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 40s as the snowpack continued to take a big hit during our winter which has been off an on at best. The raising sun angle and lengthening days seemed to further enhance the snowmelt somewhat. Many were taking advantage of the weather getting outdoors and getting active, some people even braved to wear shorts. I myself was able to take afternoon walks without a coat, which is fairly odd considering its the middle of winter!

Backyard scene January 31st 2012

This being my 1st time living in a large city, I am seeing quite an interesting contrast take place between our yard and Downtown in terms of snowcover, when one gets away from the sheltered, warm and blocking power of all the tall highrises, you find quite a bit more snowcover across the rest of the city more or less like in our yard, but even the snow in our yard has been melting away quite fast in the past 2 days. We started off near 6 inches, now there is probably an increasingly patchy 2-3" left. The snow already melted along the southside of the garage uncovering the spring bulbs, today walking around I some of the Crocus that sprouted in warm ups earlier this month were showing signs of coloring flower buds. Earliest bloom I've seen?, the question is, will break bud before this warm spell is over which is supposed to last into the weekend, only time will tell.

Highs today.

The warmest temperature in the area was in the inner parts of Rochester. All 4 of my thermometers here in West Downtown reported 50.F. Officially at the airport 7 miles and outside of the city it was 44.F. I am doing ongoing research as to why the temperature is so different between my station and the airport, for now I will go with it since I have been for the past few months.  The coolest reading was a balmy 43 at Preston.

Going to feel like Spring this week

Regional weather view.

A very mild and dry week ahead for the Upper Midwest is in store, as a warm front brings in mild air from our west. This warm front will drop some minor snowfall accumulations across Western and Northern Minnesota and Wisconsin. Temperatures will range from the low to mid 40s where there fair amount of snow pack in Northern Iowa Northward, to the low 60s in the far south. The snowpack will be taking a hit this week as well and will likely start taking a progression northward.

                                                    Local and Metro view

The feeling of spring will be what is in store for us locally and for the metro area, after we get through some light snow and sleet tonight. Amounts will not cause issues as they should be under an inch. Skies will range from partly cloudy to mostly cloudy as we go through the week, but temperatures will be in the low 40s to as warm as the mid 40s in warm spots and inner city Rochester. Lows each and every day will be in the mid 20s to low 30s. The sunniest days looks to be Monday, Wednesday and Thursday. The thick snowcover that is across our area will likely be taking a big hit this week as a repose to the warm temperatures.








Monday, Nice,  Partly cloudy mild and dry. Highs in the low 40s. Monday Night, Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies, lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Tuesday, Nice,  Partly sunny mild and dry. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Tuesday Night, Partly cloudy with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Wednesday, Nice, Partly Cloudy mild and dry, Highs in the low to mid 40s. Wednesday Night, Partly cloudy, lows in the mid 20s.

Thursday, Nice,  Mild an dry Partly Cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Thursday Night, Partly Cloudy, lows in the mid 20s.

Looking Ahead

There is really not a lot of talk about looking ahead, but Friday a brief cool down with a chance of light snows lasting into that weekend. More mild air pushes in from the west for the start of the 1st Week of February, then cold air pushes in dry for Wednesday the the 8th. It remains dry with temps seasonable to mild towards the middle part of February.

A mild, but breezy day Thursday. Snow system developing Friday minor accumulations, then cooling off and clearing out for Sunday.

Regional weather view.

A mild Thursday will give way to a weather system on Friday. This weather system will bring a mixture of rain sleet and snow to Iowa, and all snow in Northern Iowa and southern Minnesota and Wisconsin, where minor snowfall accumulations are likely. Lingering snow showers will be possible on Saturday before this will make way for a cooler and sunny Sunday across the region.

Local and Metro views

Locally its going to be a nice but gusty Thursday ahead of our next weather system which will arrive on Friday giving us minor snow totals, Thursday under partly cloudy skies highs will rise into the middle 30s across the area, can could be a tad higher if we can get into some good sunshine. The sun would be short lived becuase Thursday Night it will cloud up ahead of Fridays system. Friday a lore pressures system will pass to our south in Iowa, and snow will develop Friday around noon or sometimes after. This system will be fairly minor but could cause in convenience travel, as some of the should could be briefly on the moderate side.  Friday's Accumulations, expect accumulations to be on the light to minor side, with a solid and widespread 1-2" of accumulation. The snow will taper down sometimes Friday Night, but clouds will remain Saturday and there may even be a re development of light snow producing another dusting. Highs in the mid 20s Lows will be on the chill side in the single digits. A cold front will sweep through and bring in a weak arctic airmass for Sunday which will make for a clear and chilly day with highs only in the upper 10s, and lows in the mid 10s.

Thursday, Mild and Partly Cloudy with gusty winds. Highs in the mid 30s. Thursday Night Increasing Clouds, Lows in low 20s.

Friday, Cloudy with snow developing in the afternoon, could be moderate at times. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. Friday Night, Cloudy with snow, a widespread area wide total accumulation of 1-2" lows in the mid 10s

Saturday, Cloudy with a chance of light snow or flurries, then turning breezy, Little or no accumulations. Highs in the mid 20s. Saturday Night, Chilly, clear skies with lows in the mid single digits.

Sunday, Chilly with Sunny skies, highs in the upper 10s. Sunday Night, Increasing clouds, lows in the mid 10s.

Looking Ahead

The chilly air for Sunday will be very short lived because by Monday were already looking at a much milder airmass, there may be some light snow as this moved in, before the very mild airmass moved in. Highs could be nearing 40 with this airmass. Tuesdays looks questionable in weather, it looks rather cloudy with a chance of light rain or light snow. Wednesday of next week it clears out and becomes a bit cooler and we have fair temps and dry conditions to end the week and start next weekend. By Monday the 4th of February it will be dry, and we will be looking at very mild air to our west. The have been persistent in showing a significant dry warm up arriving by Wednesday the 8th, The models show continued warmth with a questionable chance of rain developing by the 10th. It is too early to say wither or not this will happen, but it appears warmer temperatures may be on the way.

January 22nd freezing drizzle and January 23rd snowfall totals. 2-3" was common

Downtown Rochester January 23rd from Elton Hills neighborhood

To end the weekend and start the work week we had to deal with another weather making system that brought slippery roads and freezing drizzle on Sunday, and minor to moderate snowfall accumulations on Monday. Sunday, a low pressure and frontal system slowly pushed through area from west to east. Warm moist air ahead of this low over a cold snowpack and temperatures in the upper 20s caused freezing drizzle to develop and last through the day. By the afternoon roads and sidewalks were slick and travel impacts started to develop and become an issue. Here in Rochester we had a coating of ice, nothing too significant. Overnight the cold front behind the low pushed in cooler air, at the same time the system started to get its act together, wrap up and started producing an area of precipitation in Iowa, which soon moved northeast and hit the local area in the form of a quick moderate to heavy snow. By 9AM there was already a good coating across most areas, more wrap around moisture continued to bring snow through the morning and afternoon and made for slow going travel. By the time the system was departing, in my yard we had a total of 2.75" of snow with a water content of 0.32" combined with the freezing drizzle.

Elton Hills park January 23rd

With all the minor snowfalls adding over the past couple weeks we have built ourselves quite a nice snowpack, I would estimate we have between 5 and 8 inches of snow on the ground here in Rochester. This is the highest amount of snow we had on the ground at one time so far this season, and its starting to look much more like Southern Minnesota should look in the middle to end of January!

Snowfall Totals

The highest report was 3" reported out of Mantorville, Zumbrota and Spring Vally, everyone seems to have at least gotten 2" in this system, the least was at the 2" mark which was reported at several areas.

Mixed bag of weather and windy tomarrow for Southeast Minnesota all fairly light starting off as freezing drizzle/sleet changing to snow overnight. minor accumulations. Turning pleasent for midweek

Regional weather view.

A weather system will cause quite a mess in the Upper Midwest for the end of this week. It will spread a mix bag of precip and weather ranging from mild and rainy in Illinois, to sleet and freezing rain in parts of Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin to snow in Northern Minnesota. The weather will quiet down into next week when a calmer, sunny and warm pattern will remain in the Midwest.

Local and Metro views.

Note: This forecast replaces my forecast for Sunday

 Travel could become difficult across the region later tonight into tomorrow as a mixed bag of weather moved into our area, this will be a mild and windy weather system which will spread warm air over this snowpack which will result in light freezing drizzle and flurries tomorrow, and sleet towards the evening Winds could gust to 35MPH, and highs will warm to the low to mid 30s. A light icing could occur which would cause travel issues very quickly. Lows will remain in the low to mid 20s overnight, A cold front will sweep in behind this system overnight Sunday light snow and strong winds causing blowing snow will occur Monday, we could get a quick inch or two before its all over Monday night. Tuesday skies will clear out and we will have typical Late January weather with highs in the mid 20s. Wednesday we will have pleasant weather, sunshine with highs in the low to mid 30s and lows in the teens and 20s both nights.





Sunday Cloudy and windy, winds gusting to 35MPH at times, light freezing drizzle and flurries at times. Highs in the lower 30s. Sunday Night, Light Sleet and flurries, with light snow developing, otherwise cloudy with lows in the low 20s

Monday, Colder with light snow and blowing snow. Windy with winds gusting to 30MPH. 1-2" accumulation. Highs in the mid 20s Monday Night, clear a chilly, lows in the upper single digits.

Tuesday, Clearing skies, not as windy. Sunny with highs in the low to mid 20s Tuesday Night, Clear skies, lows in the upper 10s

Wednesday, Sunny and pleasant, highs in the low to mid 30s. Wednesday night, Clear skies lows in the upper 10s to low 20s

Looking Ahead.

 We will end the work week next week on a mild and dry note, then a dry cold front will push through, bringing in colder air just in time for next weekend. Warmer air pushed in for Tuesday the 31st. It remains dry Moisture does pick up in the form of snow for Thursday the 2nd of February, then very cold air pushes in behind this system in time for the weekend of the 4th of February. Towards the end of this model run a warmer drier pattern begins to push east.

Latest blast of winter, Thursdays cold and Fridays snowfall totals, some spots topped 5 inches!

Snowy scene in our neighborhood January 20th 2012

A blast of actual winter hit the region this week and many were feeling it! Thursday we had cold temperatures that barely reached above zero and Friday we had a strong clipper system bring some descent snow to parts of the area. I thought it would be a good idea to put the information from both posts into one big wintery cold post!

 Front yard view January 20th 2012

First I will discuss the snow. A strong clipper system hit the region today bringing moderate snow accumulations and heavy snow to parts of the area. The system its self was not a huge deal becuase compared to what we normally see but becuase its been so long since we had decent snow it was a sight to see, and for some this was the largest snowfall of the season so far. Some parts in the southern part of the area saw accumulations topping 5 inches! Everyone saw at least an inch of snow from this, but there was a fairly sharp cut off from the heaviest to the lighter amounts to the north. This was a very fast moving system becuase when people went to bed Thursday night skies were clear, and by 3pm Friday, skies were clear again! The snow fell when the temperatures were very cold in the single digits, so it was a fine powdery sand grain type snow. Some Snow lovers and warm weather lovers alike I talked to both agree that it is nice to see a little Minnesota winter in our weather for once, as the area is starting to establish a fairly good snowpack for the 1st time this winter season.

Snow totals

The highest accumulations were right along the Iowa boarder Lanesbro hit 5.50" and Preston had 5.0" It's kind of interesting to me that Rochester had lower amounts even when locations west and east of there got at least 3" but just over 2.0" was the rule there. Amounts were closer to 1-2" in the north.

Downtown Rochester,MN January 20th 2012

Thursday was the coldest day of the season so far for the entire area. Lows starting off Thursday morning were well below zero and in the teens below zero for many areas. Under arctic sunshine highs were slow to rise, and when they did they only rose to the single digits. Steam from a Downtown Rochester buliding can be seen very easily in the cold clear day like today was!

Lows Thursday morning and highs Thursday

The coldest temperature area wide was just west of Rochester with a low of -12.F reported at Byron,  The warmest was Winona and inner city Rochester which was -8.F

Fair sized winter system tomarrow, Heavy snow likely across the area, Sigificant totals may possible in southern counties. Warming up afterwards, then more snow possible Sunday. Updated X1

Regional weather view.

A strong clipper system will cause a few issues in the Upper Midwest for the start of the weekend. A low pressure system will slide southeast, and bring heavy snow with it. Significant accumulations are possible in Northeast Iowa, Far southeastern Minnesota, Northern Illinois, and Southern Wisconsin. It clears out Saturday, and even warms up for Sunday just in time for another weather system to move into the region.

Local and Metro views.

Note: This forecast has been updated and amounts in Northern and Central areas have been increased slightly. Amounts in the south have remained the same.

Get ready for snow with in our resent bout of Winter here in Southern Minnesota. This system will become a pretty big story across our area as a strong clipper system will impact the area starting late tonight which has the chance to bring significant accumulations to parts of our area. Snow will develop late tonight lasting into Friday evening, with Heavy snow possible. Winds should not be a huge problem, and the snow type will be light and fluffy. Highs will otherwise be in the mid upper single digits to lower 10s. The snow will end Friday Evening and it will even be clear and sunny for Saturday, with chilly highs in the middle 10s. Sunday, we have yet another chance of snow with a warm up near the 30s for highs. I will not go into details of this one yet, I will see how this one turns out.

Snowfall Accumulations and expected effects

Although this storm will not be huge, its effects could be be felt quite hard to some becuase of the lack of snow we've had so far this winter. Heavy snow is possible across the entire area espesscailly Friday morning to mid morning, but depending upon where you are will mean the difference in what you get. The highest Accumulations, and best chance for significant totals will be highest near the Iowa boarder for communities such as Austin, Preston and Harmony. Here 5+ inches are likely. Slightly north 3 to as much as 5 inches will be the rule, for cities like Dodge Center, the Rochester metro area and Winona. If you go even further north, totals will slack off even more 2-3" is likely  for Cannon Falls and Red Wing areas. Travel impacts will probably be an issue, espesscailly for central and southern areas as heavy snow will be possible very close to if not during the morning rush. Residents in the area, espesscailly in southern and central should prepare for a typical system with heavy snow.

Friday, Snow lasting through the day tapering to flurries late. Heavy snow in the morning. then cloudy with highs in the 10s. Friday Night, Clear skies lows in the mid single digits below zero, Total Accumulation 2-3" north, 3-5" central areas, and around 5" or more southern areas.

Saturday, Chilly, sunny skies, highs in the mid to upper 10s. Saturday Night, Increasing clouds lows in the lower 10s.

Sunday, Warmer, A chance of snow. Minor accumulations possible. Highs in the upper 20s. Sunday Night, A chance of snow, minor accumulations possible. Lows in the mid 20s

Looking Ahead

The models have been pretty consistent on bringing more snow to the local area on Sunday, but there is some disagreement on if there could be some rain mixed in. This is part of the reason why I will not make any guesses at this time. It looks warmer next week then this week has bee, but it will cool off slightly Monday as snow ends with breezy conditions. There will be another chance of light snow with a warm front Wednesday the 25th, as warmer air begins to invade. It's invasion is short lives as another cold front moves Monday the 30th with another chance at light snow. The models increase storm activity towards the start of February, when it looks like we may have a least a chance or two at more snowfall. More on this later.