September 29th sigificant wind event-widespread 45-50MPH winds reported! Minor damage reported as well.

Image from Twin Cities NWS

A strong low pressure system produced widespread 45 to 50MPH winds which caused minor tree damage in what ended out to be a pretty significant wind event. A strong, tight low pressure over Michigan brought these very strong winds to much of the Upper Midwest. The low in this image was center near Duluth,MN, the NWS says the purple and blue colors indicated stronger low pressure and stronger winds. The strongest winds appeared to be on the southern and western side, as well as the Northeastern side of the low.
Strong winds on front yard tree September 29th 2011

For the local area, the winds started out in the morning hours, but really got very strong around 1PM in the afternoon, which is also when showers started to develop, by the 1pm hour, gusts were well over 45MPH on multiple stations across the area. One very strong gust in particular measured 56MPH from Rochester. Widespread minor damage in forms of breaking tree limbs and blown around objects occurred area wide, The good news is there was no significant damage reported. The winds were highest across Southern and western parts of the local area, in places like Rochester, Dodge Center, Austin and Preston which was more on the edge of the shower activity.

Effects from Rochester



Strong wind video from Front yard.

The NWS had wind advisories and warnings for many states across the region in preparation for this event, Much of Minnesota, all of Wisconsin and Michigan, and some of Illinois were included in these advisories or warnings, so naturally it was known there was going to be alot of wind. The winds was pretty gusty early, but it was when class was over around 1pm that the winds really picked up. During my drive home drive home winds were howling across the city, I witnessed one impressive gust of wind which sent a shower of small dead branches and leaves at the street and my car, none were of concerning size to cause damage.

2 inch Ash branch along 4th Downtown Rochester

The city will have alot of branches to clean up this weekend, especially from ash tree species, which really took beating in these winds, I seen multiple branches from ash down across the city, Trees that were especially hard hit were right along 4th street in Downtown, one block between stoplights had 5 branches of the size above laying in the boulevard. Not only was there ,many branches but there were lots of of leaves piled 3 feet deep in some of the alleys between high rise buildings!

Tree branch laying on boulevard along 4th street SW



Large 4 inch diameter ash branch snapped

This was the largest of the branches I found in Downtown, it was large enough that it made an indentation in the grass where it fell. My thinking on why the Downtown trees were some of the hardest hit is because the wind blowing between the high rise buildings, acted like wind tunnels that were aimed right at these trees.
Very large 10 inch diameter tree top snapped St Marys Park-West Downtown

This was the largest branch I found that broke off the top of a tree in St Marys Park in West Downtown. This damage occurred again from the Ash tree species. There was a large hole in the ground where the base of the branch struck the ground.

Damage from my neighborhood.

This was a fair sized Maple branch that broke off and landed in the sidewalk on my street, just up the hill slightly. These types of trees are stronger and do not typically loose branches as easily, which really showed how strong the winds were.

Damage from our yard September 29th 2011

I spent much of the time when the winds were strongest at home. They were probably some of the strongest I've seen, it reminded me of the October 2010 storm system in Wisconsin accept the winds were not as sustained. Some effects I saw was the tree in the front seemed to sway surprisingly vigorous back in forth, I was surprised in how flexible that tree is. At one point, I also watched as a huge box and pieces trash blow like tumbleweeds across the industrial lot west our house, the garbage then scattered into my neighborhood. it was quite an interesting experience to see, but not so much to clean up after! There was also lots of leaves flying through the air constantly all day long. There was some minor damage around the yard which included the 2 inch Silver Maple branch above, there was also lots dead branches varying in size from pretty large to small, I spent much of the afternoon Saturday picking up these branches. Wind reports from the closest wind gauge to our neighborhood said winds were 56MPH, this was from St Marys hospital 2 blocks from the house, but this gauge is located on top of the hospital where it is high above the tree line, free of obstacles. Closer to the ground around my neighborhood it was probably closer to 45MPH. The Rochester International Airport 7 miles to my south recorded a 48MPH gust!

Highest wind gusts reported.

Wind gusts were over 45MPH at most stations, The highest wind gust area wide was from a station 2 miles Southwest of Downtown Rochester a very strong 56MPH and the least windiest conditions were found in Northeastern areas.

Strong cold front pasing through, Cooler sunny with strong winds possibly gusting to 45MPH Thursday, Cool but sunny weekend. Updated #1

Regional Weather View.

Attention in the Upper Midwest is turned to a strong low pressure system and cold front which will cause strong winds to blow through Thursday. Winds could gust to 50MPH in parts of Northeast Iowa, Eastern Minnesota, Wisconsin and Upper Michigan, behind the front that will also bring in much cooler air for Thursday and Friday. Weather conditions will be calmer, and dry weather looking likely for the weekend.

Local weather view with fall color projections

Locally, Our weather will also focus attention onto the strong low pressure and cold front for Thursday which will cause windy conditions of 30 to 40MPH possibly gusting as high as 45MPH here in the local area. Behinds the winds, it also will be much cooler and dry with partly cloudy skies. Highs will in the low to mid 60s. lows Thursday night will be in the mid 40s. Friday should be sunny but cool, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, it will also still be breezy as well. With clear skies Friday Night, temperatures have the potential to reach light frosting range in the upper 30s in areas outside of larger cities of Austin, Winona, Rochester and Red Wing, in these areas lows should remain in the low 40s. The weekend should feature sunshine both Saturday and Sunday with highs in the mid 60s both days, and lows in the low to mid 40s, which will be perfect for fall color viewing! Based on current trends if leaves can hold up in Thursdays winds, it is likely that much of the central and northern part of the area will have moderate, or near moderate color by the weekend, and southern areas should at least be in the low color range.

Strong wind threat.

It looks likely that strong winds will occur tomorrow from this system. The primary wind direction will be Northwest 30 to 40MPH, with some gusts at times reaching 45MPH, It is possible there may be a few gusts over 45MPH outside of large the communities. The timing of the strongest winds will be in the afternoon. Winds this strong can cause issues, some possibly even being on the more significant side depending on the situation. Weakened Trees or branches may break, especially in the large communities and in woods where trees are closer together, loose objects will blow around if not secured. People in the local area should take time to secure loose objects before 10AM tomorrow.

Metro view.

For the Rochester Metro we can expect the windy conditions tomorrow as described above, winds have the chance to reach 45MPH even here in the city. See the wind threat section for possible impacts. besides these winds, Thursday will be, sunny and much cooler. Highs will be in the mid 60s with lows in the mid 40s, and Friday will also be much of the same for weather accept highs will be in the low 60s instead. Friday night will be chilly and has a chance to frost with lows in the upper 30s in outer city areas, inner city and Downtown will probably remain in the 40s and frost free. The weekend will be nice with lots of sunshine and highs in the mid 60s, and lows in the mid 40s both days. Fall color will likely increasing alot and should be approaching moderate levels in the metro by the weekend.

Thursday, Windy! Cooler, Sunny, Northwest winds of 30 to 40MPH, gusting to 45MPH at times. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Thursday Night, clear skies, lows in the low to mid 40s.

Friday, Cool and breezy, winds up to 30MPH possible, Sunny skies with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Friday Night, Frost possible, Clear skies, with lows falling into the upper 30s to low 40s.

Saturday/Sunday, Sunshine, highs in the mid 60s, lows in the low to mid 40s.

Looking Ahead

Monday of the upcoming week looks sunny with much more mild temperatures. The mild temperatures with off and on cloudiness and sun lasts through Thursday the 6th, before a strong system passes through and looks to bring heavy rainfall potential to the area on Friday the 7th, behind it, it dries out and cools off, before another strong system pushes southeastward from Canada. The models have been particularly interesting with this one, saying that enough cold air may come down with in to bring rain, and even snow chances into Minnesota, even as far south as the local area on the the 13th of October. This is nothing to get worried or concerned about at this time because the models has not been consistent with this outcome, it could show a completely different scenario even tomorrow, so check back later.

Rainfall totals September 26th. Very beneficial 1+ values reported in some areas, others areas got far less.

Soggy conditions September 26th 2011

Monday was a soggy, blustery and cool day for much of the area, as a low pressure system was passing through. What is interesting about this system is that it is a cut off low pressure system, so it is actually moving in an usually Westerly direction, instead of the typical east direction seen most of the time. This is why we've been stuck under clouds for a long period of time. The system sent wave steady moderate showers west out of Wisconsin, eventually passing through the entire area. There was a fairly sharp cutoff in the heaviest totals from the lesser totals because the bands remained over these areas longest, and they dried up in drier air that was over Cannon Falls and Dodge Center. Southeasterly areas, which was in need of the moisture got commonly around 1 inch of rain, while westerly and northerly areas saw a quarter inch or less, even further north barely say anything but some drizzle!

Rainfall totals across the area

Winona 1.15"
Dakota 1.03"
West Downtown Rochester (my sta.) 1.00"
Lanesbro 0.84"
Preston 0.79"
Rochester Airport 0.68"
Spring Valley 0.65"
Austin 0.26"
Red Wing 0.25"
Lake City 0.25"
Dodge Center 0.19"
Cannon Falls 0.03"

Fall Color Report #3 Much more color being seen across the area, "low color now" being reported- Photos included

Fall color report #3 September 24th 2011

Fall color is really starting to increase across the area this week with the cool and cloudy days we've had. All areas accept for Austin are reporting "low color" with at least 20% to 35% color. Austin it's self is still reporting slight less then 19% color. Most color across the area at this time is in earlier changing trees like Maple, Ash and roadside Sumac in colors of Red, Orange and Yellowish. Slight drought conditions along with a lime pierod of cloudy days are helping to speed up the coloring process. Peak colors for the area should occur in about 3 weeks if weather corporates.
Downtown-Orange Red Maple September 24th 2011

I've noticed significantly more fall color here in Rochester just in the past week. I raise color this week to Low Color-20% because it is now getting hard to find places that don't have at least a little tinge of color. I've noticed Red Maples, Sugar Maples, Sumac, and Ash all starting to turn colors of Yellow, Orange and red and in areas with lots of these trees, color is picking up and starting to get impressive.


St Marys Park color

Here we see Ash (left) starting to turn yellow, and a Sugar Maple (right) starting to turn a very pretty red. Color in this spot has picked up just in the last week.
St Marys Park-West Downtown, Darf Burning Bush color.


Another thing I've noticed is many of the old houses around my neighborhood, as well as St Marys Hospital have mass plantings of these darf burning bushes around them, and it's easy to see why! The color on these are astoundingly fiery red, and are a real eye catcher!

West Downtown Sugar Maples.

These young Sugar Maples in my neighborhood are really starting to get nice color, but they are some of the only Maples turning in the nieghborhood so far.



Entire tree view Sept 24th 2011-Looking Northeast towards Emerald Hills

I wanted to show an entire tree view to show that even though color is really picking up, it is still not very impressive when looking at a broad view.

Front yard view Sept 24th 2011

Here is a look at the very summer-looking Front yard view as of September 24th. The ash in the front is still appears to be starting to hint at color, but as one can see here it is lacking any sigificant color. Which is interesting becuase looking back in my old posts, ash trees in my hometown yard always had very good color by this time of year. Even the darf burning bush we have near the middle of the garden is still green.

A bit sunnier for Saturday, the long lasting showery & cool condtions from backtracking low for Sun through Tues.

Regional Weather View.

A cool wet fall like pattern will be setting up for the 1st week of the fall season. A backtracking low pressure system will edge back towards the region and cool, cloudy and showery conditions to parts of Minnesota Iowa, and most of Wisconsin and Illinois. Western Minnesota and Iowa as well as South and North Dakota and Missouri should be dry.

Local Weather View.

Locally we will have at least 1 day break from cloudy conditions. Saturday should be a pretty good amount of sunshine for the most part. Highs will be in the mid to upper 60s as a result of the sunshine with lows in the mid 40s. As the day goes on clouds will increase, and towards the overnight hours, there may be a sprinkle. Sunday through Tuesday there will be increasing showers and drizzle from the east it will likely be a prolonged period of clouds, coolness and drizzle. Sunday will be cooler and much more cloudy with a chance of isolated sprinkles or drizzle at any point in the day. Highs will be in the low 60s with lows in the mid 40s. Monday as the system strengthens slightly there will be a better chance of scattered showers and drizzle, it will be a chilly day with highs in the upper 50s. The drizzle may last through the night time hours. Tuesday, there will still be a chance of drizzle or a shower, but the shower chances will slowly decrease as the day goes on, and there may be a few peaks of sunshine. Highs will be in the low 60s, with lows in the mid 40s. The rain and clouds will finally clear out Tuesday into Wednesday.






Metro view.

For the Rochester Metro we can also expect Saturday to be our nice day, it will be partly cloudy with highs in the upper 60s for the metro. Sunday through Tuesday will have a chance of isolated showers or drizzle all 3 days, but Monday will be the wettest and coolest. Highs will be in the 60s Sunday with lows in the mid 40s. Monday highs will be in the upper 50s with lows in the mid 40s, and finally Tuesday will have highs in the low 60s with lows in the mid 40s. Clouds will clear Tuesday Night into Wednesday.

Saturday, Partly cloudy then increasing clouds. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Saturday Night. isolated drizzle developing. Lows in the mid 40s

Sunday, Mostly Cloudy with the chance of isolated drizzle, highs in the low 60s. Sunday Night, Isolated drizzle possibly, Mostly cloudy with lows in the mid 40s.

Monday, Cool, Cloudy with scatted showers and drizzle, highs in the upper 50s. Monday Night, Drizzle or light rain, otherwise cloudy with lows in the mid 40s.

Tuesday, Isolated drizzle or shower still possibly, otherwise mostly cloudy with highs in the low 60s. Tuesday Night, Clearing skies, lows in the low to mid 40s.

Looking Ahead

The system which will plague Southeastern Minnesota through Midweek will finally clear out for Wednesday, Sunshine and warmer temps will come back into the picture. The sunshine and seasonable temps should last into the 1st half of next weekend. Sunday the 2nd of October will have a small chance of showers with a cold front, before it dries out and becomes sunny with seasonable temps by Monday the 3rd, lasting through the 6th. Towards the 7th a strong cold front passes bringing a shower and thunderstorm chances. along with much colder air behind it, but that doesn't last long because warmer air and drier conditions comes right back at us towards the end of the model at October 9th.

Very Strong cold front plus system for Tuesday, chance of strong storms, then turning very cool wet and windy Tues. night and Wednesday.

Regional Weather View.

A potent system will plow through the Upper Midwest on Tuesday bringing with it a huge transition in the weather. There will be a chance of severe weather on one side, and windy very cool weather on the other. Conditions will clear up and becoming nicer come Thursday.

Local Weather View.

Locally we can expect a nice start to Tuesday, it will be partly cloudy with highs in the low 70s. Then thunderstorms could develop along the front in the afternoon, and if they do some could become Strong, possibly severe. But the chance of this happening is quite slim. What is likely to be the bigger story for Southeastern Minnesota will be the much cooler and windy conditions near, and behind the front. As the front approaches Tuesday Evening winds from the West will kick up very quickly, and could gust 25 to 30MPH, possible 40MPH, which could cause some minor issues. The wind will spill into Wednesday, when it will be much cooler, mostly cloudy with off and on drizzle or light rain, if enough instability builds up there could be a few cells with some grapple or enhanced gusts. Highs will not warm much at all, and will be lucky if we reach the upper 50s. Wednesday Night, we can expect a chilly breezy night with lows dropping in the low 40s. Thursday will be the much better day, we should get some sunshine with a drier airmass, and with the added sun, highs will warm to near 60, but with the drier air it will cool off Thursday Night, lows may dip into the upper 30s, with possibly some patchy frost.

Metro View.



For the Rochester Metro we can expect mid 70s Tuesday, with the storm chances mainly early in the day. It is slim that Rochester will see one of these storms, but if we do, it could be on the stronger side. Windy conditions near the front will reach the metro by evening, and could cause some minor issues. Gusts to near 35MPH are possible Tuesday, lasting through Wednesday making it feel raw. Highs will likely not reach 60, with as mentioned above the off and on drizzle or light rain. Thursday will be much brighter, with partly cloudy skies and highs in the low 60s. Under the current forecasts, lows Thursday Night should not drop cool enough to see frost in Inner city and Downtown locations, but outer cities may see patchy frost.



Tuesday, Partly Cloudy with a slim chance of a thunderstorm, some could be strong possibly severe. Highs in the lot to mid 70s. Then increasing cloudiness and wind. Tuesday Night, Windy, winds could gust to near 35MPH, possibly 40MPH at times. Otherwise partly cloudy with lows in the mid 40s.



Wednesday, Windy, Cold, Mostly cloudy with off and on drizzle. Highs in the mid to upper 50s Winds could gust to 30MPH. Wednesday Night, Cloudy, lows in the mid 40s.



Thursday, Clearing skies. Partly cloudy with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Thursday Night, chilly, clear skies with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.



No looking ahead forecast.

Fall Color Report #2 colors are just starting to show across most of Southeastern Minnesota.

Fall color report #2


Fall colors are now just starting to show across much of Southeastern Minnesota with the longer nights and very chilly days we've been having. All areas along and North of Interstate 90 are now reporting slight color in earlier changing trees. While the far southern part of the area, including Austin and Harmony remains primarily green, with no color yet being reported. Average peak time is only about 3 to 4 weeks away so I suspect color really begin to show faster in the next few weeks!

Sugar maple starting to turn orange September 19th 2011 West Downtown Rochester.

Here in Rochester I give the area about 10% color chance so far, I've started to noticed a few spotty earlier changing trees starting to turn color along city streets. I've seen Sugar Maple, and some Ash starting to turn orange and yellow. Burning bushes in yards are also starting to turn reddish-pink. another thing I noticed is quite a few trees are just dropping leaves with little to no color, likely due to stress from dry conditions.

Green trees September 19th 2011

As one can see we will have a very long ways to go, there is still lots of green around. In the yard, trees remain very green at this time. The only color I have noticed is the Ash in the front yard starting to hint at possible color change soon by some slight yellowing and dropping of a few leaves, otherwise it is still mostly green and not impressive at this time.