Strong cold front moves through tomarrow. Windy then Sigificantly colder air will be in place by Wednesday, when highs will not get out of the 30s! Coldest night so far expected Wed Night.

Regional Weather View.

The warm weather that the region has been experiencing over the past week will come to and end as a strong cold front slices through the region. Highs will go from being in the 50s and 60s, on Tuesday to being in the 30s and 40s on Wednesday. Areas in Northern Minnesota and Wisconsin may have some snowshowers on Tuesday, but the rest of the region could remain dry. Friday warmer air will begin to move back towards the region ahead of a weather system.

Local View.

Locally we can expect the strong cold front to push through during the morning on Tuesday. In the wake of this front which will pass through dry, strong westerly winds will gust to near 40MPH, and the high temperature in the upper 40s for the day will probably occur early in the day, and it will not feel that warm. Tuesday night will be cold with lows falling well into the lower 20s to upper 10s! Wednesday the area will be under the full force of this airmass. Highs will likely not get out of the 30s even with lots of sunshine expected! Winds will also still be quite breezy so it will likely feel pretty cold compared to what we've had. Wednesday Night under crystal clear skies lows will plunge to their coldest levels so far. Teens are likely, and could fall as low as the middle 10s in some places. Thursday will not be much better, accept that it will be less breezy. It will be sunny with highs in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Lows Thursday Night will be much milder, setting up the stage for a much warmer Friday in the mid to upper 40s, as winds switch southerly ahead of the next weather system, skies will be partly cloudy. Precip may develop in the form of light sprinkles late overnight Friday. Lows will be in the mid 30s.
Metro View

Tuesday, Sunny and Windy! Chilly west winds gusting to 40MPH at times. Highs in the upper 40s early in the day. Tuesday Night. Cold! Clear skies with lows in the upper 10s to lower 20s inner city Rochester.


Wednesday, Cold sunshine, with breezy and chilly west winds. Highs in the middle to upper 30s. Wednesday Night, Cold. Lows falling to the mid 10s to upper 10s inner city Rochester.

Thursday, Chilly, Not as breezy. Sunny with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Thursday Night, not as cold, Partly cloudy with lows in the low 30s. 


Friday, Much Warmer, and turning breezy. Partly cloudy with increasing afternoon clouds. Highs in the upper 40s. Friday Night, Mostly cloudy with possible sprinkles developing late. Lows in the mid 30s.

Looking Ahead

The models have been telling a possible interesting story with a system for the upcoming weekend.  Most models have been showing a fair sized system developing over Kansas and pushing over Northeastern Iowa into Wisconsin. If this plays out it would Produce a swath of snow across most of Minnesota and with cold air already in place by that time. For the local area it would mean light rain Saturday, changing to snow on Sunday, and a a few inches would not be out of the question. With possibly a half a foot for Central Minnesota north of the Twin Cites. But with the way systems have been playing out lately, it is difficult to trust and get excited over any significant precip happening, but it is still worth watching. It dries out and remains much more like November behind this system for Monday, then more light snow showers could develop for the area on Tuesday the 22nd. The models continue to hint at a dry and mild Thanksgiving holiday, with even the chance of plain old rain for the area on Saturday the 26th. A strong cold front pushes through on the 28th and a system brings snow to the area right behind it. It's not long after that before another strong system develops on the 30th, which has a fair chance of bringing rain or snow to the area.

 
 

Warming up sigificantly for the weekend, Sunshine and middle 50s likely by Saturday! Chance for a few light showers Sunday, before more Sunshine Monday.

Regional Weather View.

Warmer air will surge in from the west starting Friday. Most of the Midwest will enjoy sunshine and much warmer temperatures. Saturday is when this little warm up will peak, middle 50s is possible as far north as Southern Minnesota. A weak cool front will slide through the region on Sunday which could spark a few showers mainly across the north. Otherwise sunny weather will break out again starting next week.

Local View.

Locally we can expect a couple of nice days to shape up for this weekend! Both Friday and Saturday will feature sunshine with highs in the lower to mid 50s, Which is well above normal. A couple place may even reach near 60 on Saturday! Lows will be in the middle to upper 30s. The only small downside will be it will be a bit breezy. Sunday will be a cloudier day, and with a weak cool front pulling through there may be a light shower or two. But no one should get excited for any significant rainfall becuase it is likely going to be only small amounts and not everyone will see rain. With the clouds highs will be in the upper 40s Sunday with lows in the mid 30s. Monday skies will clear out behind this front, and highs will still even be fairly mild in the upper 40s. Lows will be in the mid 30s.

Metro View.

Friday, Much Warmer! Sunny skies, a bit breezy with highs in the low 50s. Friday Night, Clear skies. Lows in the low 30s to mid 30s inner city Rochester.

Saturday, Mild! Sunny and a bit breezy with highs in the middle to upper 50s. Saturday Night. Increasing clouds. Lows in the low 40s. 

Sunday, Mostly Cloudy with a chance for a few light spotty showers. Highs in the upper 40s. Sunday Night, Clearing skies. Lows in the mid 30s.

Monday, Mild and Sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. Monday Night. Clear skies. Lows in the low 30s to mid 30s inner city Rochester.

Looking Ahead

Tuesday, a strong cold front will bring highs down to where there supposed to be for middle November. Unfortunaity this front looks to pass through dry. Temperatures stay fair and it continues to be dry through the middle of next week, and even towards the weekend it remains dry. Saturday the 19th warms up briefly then a strong cold front looks to bring a chance of light showers turning to flurries. Then a much stronger system drags up warm and and lots of rain showers for Monday the 21st, and then it drys out for Thanksgiving Weekend. Afterwards remains on the fair side for temps with another chance for rainfall on the 26th. The long range models have been very un reliable this fall and change daily. Check back for updates.

Weak system behind Wisconsin snowstorm brought the 1st snowflakes of the season for much of the area overnight/this morning.

Whitend roofs from overnight flurries November 10th 2011

Just when I thought the chance of snow had passed for the day. I noticed a very weak, but fast moving system producing light snow in Northern Minnesota quickly move southeast through the state. Eventually it reached the local area after 11PM and lasted much of the overnight hours into the 1st part of the morning. This system brought only light accumulation and flurries, but it was the 1st snow most places have had this season. This will also go down as the 1st snow that has fallen in my neighborhood. A very light accumulation of 0.10" was recorded on elevated surfaces. This was a very dry snow because there was  only trace of actual liquid. The flurries and clouds made for a very chilly and breezy day. The high was 39.F here in Rochester, which is the coolest high so far this season. Things will warm up significantly for the weekend and our next chance of for precip may come on Sunday in the form of rain.

System report- Entire area miss by snow accept far east where up to 1.50" of snow fell. Moderate to Severe drought taking over eveywhere else.

Photo showing bare grass in my West Downtown neighborhood November 9th 2011

Some people woke up to white snowcover this morning, while others woke up to dry grass depending on where you are. A system that was in question on where it would go of much this week ended up sweeping just east of the area. Only the far northwest extent of it clipped the area. Places East of a line from Preston to Washaba received a coating up to 1.50" of snow. While places west of there were left high and dry. Here in Rochester on Tuesday Afternoon there was a brief time when some ice pellets were coming down, but if you were not outside with in the 5 minutes that it was occurring, you probably did not see it. With this amount, this system only produced a trace of precip. and this also means that I have yet to see snow at my location, which makes us behind becuase Rochester typically sees it's first snow during the 1st week of November.

White scene from La Crosse,WI

This image from La Crosse,Wisconsin just over 50 miles east of Rochester proved how close the edge of the snow came. My classmates in class were mentioning how traffic that was coming westbound on 94 coming out of Wisconsin had snowcovered cars and chunks of snow in the highway. Which is fairly odd to see when the only snow you see are those chunks!

Snowfall Reports

Preston 0.25" snow
Highland 1.50" snow
Peterson 1.50" snow

 Drought monitor as of November 1st 2011

I was hoping rain and snow would fall from this past system, and becuase it didn't and lack of rainfall continues to be an issue. I decided to talk a bit about the drought that is currently in place. Fall here in Southeastern Minnesota has been a very dry one. every month since I moved here for college has brought below average rainfall, and some months have been extremely dry. October was recorded as the 8th driest month for Rochester, less then 0.35" of rain fell at my station. Moderate to Severe drought covers most of Dodge, Mower, Olmstead and Goodhue counties, It has been especially dry in cities like Dodge Center, Austin and Kenyon. Lakes and streams are suffering becuase of the lack of rainfall as well many across these areas are quite low. Our fall color season was compromised and fast becuase of dry conditions and I've also noticed our grass take on a brown appearance way sooner then it normally should. Hopefully the more active weather pattern that is in place will bring rains back into the area.

Wintery System impacting the area Tomarrow. Rain/snow mix starting in the evening changing to all snow by Tuesday Night, Heavy snow possible, but ammounts lowered.

 Regional Weather View.

The regions 1st Wintery System of the season will be impacting parts of the Upper Midwest Tuesday through Wednesday. This system will produce significant, much needed rains in Southeast Iowa, Illinois and Southeastern Wisconsin. While snow is likely on the storms Northwest side, some of which may be significant amounts in Northern Iowa, Southeastern Minnesota and Western Wisconsin.

 Local View.

Note: The storm system is showing an easterly trend, and becuase of this snowfall amounts have been lowered. Also the timing of it will be delayed until this evening, and temperatures will be warmer then what was forecasted. Locally this system will start of as a rain or snow mix developing Tuesday evening, and in After highs top out in the middle 40s, then will drop towards evening, and Eventually as temps lower even more. any the rain or snow mix will be all snow, and some of this could develop into heavy snow during the overnight hours. Lows will be in the low 30s just below freezing, so slick roads should not be too much of a hazard, but is still possible. The snow will continue to fall through the 1st part of Wednesday, and could still be heavy during the morning, Before the snow ends Wednesday Afternoon, rain may mix with or change back to a light rain or drizzle. Highs will be in the mid to upper 30s on Wednesday with the new snowcover. Skies will start to clear Wednesday Night, allowing Lows will cool into the lower middle 20s. Thursday will be sunny, and much of the snow that doesn't melt Wednesday will melt. Highs will be in the low 40s on Wednesday with lows falling back into the lower to mid 20s.

Snowfall Accumulation Potential

Snowfall amounts are extremely difficult on winter systems this early in the season, with their changeable tracks and warm ground temperatures, but it appears that there will generally be a temporary accumulation of 1-3 inches of snow area wide. Amounts have been lowered to 1-2 inches for places such as Austin, The Rochester Metro, Winona, Cannon Falls and Red Wing by Wednesday Morning. While they have been raised to 2-3 occurring in the far southeastern areas. This snow will be the very wet heavy type, so impacts may including, slippery untraveled side roads, breaking trees limbs on conifer or deciduous trees that still have leaves. Even thought this system does not look as significant, People in the area should also remember their winter driving skills, as this will be the 1st snow, and 1st snow accumulation for much of the area.

Tuesday, Cloudy during the daytime hours with developing rain and snow towards evening. Highs in the mid 40s. Tuesday Night, breezy, Rain/snow turning to all snow and becoming heavy at times. Lows in the low 20s.

Wednesday, Cold, and breezy, Snow in the morning, possible heavy at times, then mixing with light rain or drizzle in the afternoon before ending. Winds gusting to 30MPH at times. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Total system snowfall accumulations of 1-3 inches possible area wide. Wednesday Night, Clearing skies, lows in the lower to mid 20s.

Thursday, Warmer, Sunny skies, highs in the lower 40s. Thursday Night, Clear skies, lows in the lower to mid 20s.

 Looking ahead forecast is not available at this time, but I will issue one when I can.
 

Nice warm weekend ahead, but breezy to windy at times with 40+ MPH winds Saturday. Pleasent weather for Monday.

Regional Weather view.

Weather over the weekend will feature a system passing across the region.  This system will bring rain, and snow to Northwestern Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota, and dry, sunny, but windy conditions to Minnesota, Most of Wisconsin and Iowa. It will be mild on the southeastern side of the system. Places will warm into the 60s.

                                          Local View

 Locally, We can expect to have a mainly dry, but windy weekend. Winds will gust from the south over 40MPH at times over the entire area, especially on Saturday. Sunday will still be breezy, but not quite as windy winds will be under 30MPH. Under sunny skies will, highs will warm to middle to upper 50s both says, with some places reaching 60. Lows will be in the middle 40s on Saturday night, to the low 30s Sunday Night. There is a small chance of some showers developing Saturday Night or early Sunday Morning, but amounts will be very light if any. Most areas will probably even stay dry. Monday will be much of the same, but winds will be light, and it will be a bit cooler. Lower to middle 50s for highs, and showers could start to develop on our next system, which is described in more detail below.





Metro View

Saturday, Mild and Windy, Southerly winds gusting over 40MPH at times. Otherwise sunny with highs in the upper 50s to 60.F Saturday Night, A chance of a light shower, otherwise partly cloudy with lows in the mid to upper 40s.

Sunday, Partly Cloudy and breezy, Southerly winds gusting to 25MPH at times, Highs in the mid 50s. Sunday Night. Clear Skies, lows in the low 30s.

Monday, Nice! Sunny less wind, highs in the low to mid 50s. Monday Night, Developing clouds and a chance of showers late. Lows in the upper 30s.

Looking Ahead & Midweek system.

There is still significant un certainty with this next system for Midweek, but it appears that it has the chance to bring the area some chances at higher amounts of rain then resent systems have. Also it is important to mention a couple of models do show cold air mixing in enough with this system that snow would be a possibility And a few models even show that heavy snow with minor accumulations may be a possibility, even for the local area, especially on Tuesday Night. But becuase there has been alot of change over the past few days, it will really depend on where this system tracks for what we get. Looking further into the models It clears out and dries out for the start of weekend of the 11th. Rainshowers move into the area with a warm front on Sunday. Then it gets very active with the models A strong system passes the area just to the east, dragging cold air into our area right in time for a significant storm system to hit on the 18th. Right now is has the potential to bring rains, and significant snows and wind to the area. But it is far to early to say for sure. It dries out and turns very cold following this system for the weekend of the 20th.

Very cold this morning, some places fell into the middle teens!

 front yard on a cold morning in West Downtown Rochester.

A very cold air was felt area wide this morning, no matter where you were in Southeastern Minnesota. A strong cold high pressure system sat right over the area through out the day yesterday leading to clear skies through out the night last night, this set up the perfect stage stage for the temperatures to drop, on our lengthening night hours. Lows fell generally in the 20s, but a few spots as cold as the middle teens were reported! They are by no means record lows, but it was certainly cold for this time of year! At my station the lows was 22.F which is the coldest reading so far this season. Leaves that were left on the tender Redbud in the backyard were dropped off by morning, and the neighborhood streets had a new coloring of leaves on the ground from some trees.

Lows Friday Morning.

The chillest area wide low was from Oronoco with a very chilly low of 14.F! The warmest low was from Preston at 31.F, where more clouds were present. for the Rochester Metro, the two warmest readings came from inner city thermometers, West Downtown (my sta.) and North River Court both fell to 22.F, but now far out of the city suburban areas temps were easily a few degrees colder in the low 20s and teens.