Fall Color Report #3 Much more color being seen across the area, "low color now" being reported- Photos included

Fall color report #3 September 24th 2011

Fall color is really starting to increase across the area this week with the cool and cloudy days we've had. All areas accept for Austin are reporting "low color" with at least 20% to 35% color. Austin it's self is still reporting slight less then 19% color. Most color across the area at this time is in earlier changing trees like Maple, Ash and roadside Sumac in colors of Red, Orange and Yellowish. Slight drought conditions along with a lime pierod of cloudy days are helping to speed up the coloring process. Peak colors for the area should occur in about 3 weeks if weather corporates.
Downtown-Orange Red Maple September 24th 2011

I've noticed significantly more fall color here in Rochester just in the past week. I raise color this week to Low Color-20% because it is now getting hard to find places that don't have at least a little tinge of color. I've noticed Red Maples, Sugar Maples, Sumac, and Ash all starting to turn colors of Yellow, Orange and red and in areas with lots of these trees, color is picking up and starting to get impressive.


St Marys Park color

Here we see Ash (left) starting to turn yellow, and a Sugar Maple (right) starting to turn a very pretty red. Color in this spot has picked up just in the last week.
St Marys Park-West Downtown, Darf Burning Bush color.


Another thing I've noticed is many of the old houses around my neighborhood, as well as St Marys Hospital have mass plantings of these darf burning bushes around them, and it's easy to see why! The color on these are astoundingly fiery red, and are a real eye catcher!

West Downtown Sugar Maples.

These young Sugar Maples in my neighborhood are really starting to get nice color, but they are some of the only Maples turning in the nieghborhood so far.



Entire tree view Sept 24th 2011-Looking Northeast towards Emerald Hills

I wanted to show an entire tree view to show that even though color is really picking up, it is still not very impressive when looking at a broad view.

Front yard view Sept 24th 2011

Here is a look at the very summer-looking Front yard view as of September 24th. The ash in the front is still appears to be starting to hint at color, but as one can see here it is lacking any sigificant color. Which is interesting becuase looking back in my old posts, ash trees in my hometown yard always had very good color by this time of year. Even the darf burning bush we have near the middle of the garden is still green.

A bit sunnier for Saturday, the long lasting showery & cool condtions from backtracking low for Sun through Tues.

Regional Weather View.

A cool wet fall like pattern will be setting up for the 1st week of the fall season. A backtracking low pressure system will edge back towards the region and cool, cloudy and showery conditions to parts of Minnesota Iowa, and most of Wisconsin and Illinois. Western Minnesota and Iowa as well as South and North Dakota and Missouri should be dry.

Local Weather View.

Locally we will have at least 1 day break from cloudy conditions. Saturday should be a pretty good amount of sunshine for the most part. Highs will be in the mid to upper 60s as a result of the sunshine with lows in the mid 40s. As the day goes on clouds will increase, and towards the overnight hours, there may be a sprinkle. Sunday through Tuesday there will be increasing showers and drizzle from the east it will likely be a prolonged period of clouds, coolness and drizzle. Sunday will be cooler and much more cloudy with a chance of isolated sprinkles or drizzle at any point in the day. Highs will be in the low 60s with lows in the mid 40s. Monday as the system strengthens slightly there will be a better chance of scattered showers and drizzle, it will be a chilly day with highs in the upper 50s. The drizzle may last through the night time hours. Tuesday, there will still be a chance of drizzle or a shower, but the shower chances will slowly decrease as the day goes on, and there may be a few peaks of sunshine. Highs will be in the low 60s, with lows in the mid 40s. The rain and clouds will finally clear out Tuesday into Wednesday.






Metro view.

For the Rochester Metro we can also expect Saturday to be our nice day, it will be partly cloudy with highs in the upper 60s for the metro. Sunday through Tuesday will have a chance of isolated showers or drizzle all 3 days, but Monday will be the wettest and coolest. Highs will be in the 60s Sunday with lows in the mid 40s. Monday highs will be in the upper 50s with lows in the mid 40s, and finally Tuesday will have highs in the low 60s with lows in the mid 40s. Clouds will clear Tuesday Night into Wednesday.

Saturday, Partly cloudy then increasing clouds. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Saturday Night. isolated drizzle developing. Lows in the mid 40s

Sunday, Mostly Cloudy with the chance of isolated drizzle, highs in the low 60s. Sunday Night, Isolated drizzle possibly, Mostly cloudy with lows in the mid 40s.

Monday, Cool, Cloudy with scatted showers and drizzle, highs in the upper 50s. Monday Night, Drizzle or light rain, otherwise cloudy with lows in the mid 40s.

Tuesday, Isolated drizzle or shower still possibly, otherwise mostly cloudy with highs in the low 60s. Tuesday Night, Clearing skies, lows in the low to mid 40s.

Looking Ahead

The system which will plague Southeastern Minnesota through Midweek will finally clear out for Wednesday, Sunshine and warmer temps will come back into the picture. The sunshine and seasonable temps should last into the 1st half of next weekend. Sunday the 2nd of October will have a small chance of showers with a cold front, before it dries out and becomes sunny with seasonable temps by Monday the 3rd, lasting through the 6th. Towards the 7th a strong cold front passes bringing a shower and thunderstorm chances. along with much colder air behind it, but that doesn't last long because warmer air and drier conditions comes right back at us towards the end of the model at October 9th.

Very Strong cold front plus system for Tuesday, chance of strong storms, then turning very cool wet and windy Tues. night and Wednesday.

Regional Weather View.

A potent system will plow through the Upper Midwest on Tuesday bringing with it a huge transition in the weather. There will be a chance of severe weather on one side, and windy very cool weather on the other. Conditions will clear up and becoming nicer come Thursday.

Local Weather View.

Locally we can expect a nice start to Tuesday, it will be partly cloudy with highs in the low 70s. Then thunderstorms could develop along the front in the afternoon, and if they do some could become Strong, possibly severe. But the chance of this happening is quite slim. What is likely to be the bigger story for Southeastern Minnesota will be the much cooler and windy conditions near, and behind the front. As the front approaches Tuesday Evening winds from the West will kick up very quickly, and could gust 25 to 30MPH, possible 40MPH, which could cause some minor issues. The wind will spill into Wednesday, when it will be much cooler, mostly cloudy with off and on drizzle or light rain, if enough instability builds up there could be a few cells with some grapple or enhanced gusts. Highs will not warm much at all, and will be lucky if we reach the upper 50s. Wednesday Night, we can expect a chilly breezy night with lows dropping in the low 40s. Thursday will be the much better day, we should get some sunshine with a drier airmass, and with the added sun, highs will warm to near 60, but with the drier air it will cool off Thursday Night, lows may dip into the upper 30s, with possibly some patchy frost.

Metro View.



For the Rochester Metro we can expect mid 70s Tuesday, with the storm chances mainly early in the day. It is slim that Rochester will see one of these storms, but if we do, it could be on the stronger side. Windy conditions near the front will reach the metro by evening, and could cause some minor issues. Gusts to near 35MPH are possible Tuesday, lasting through Wednesday making it feel raw. Highs will likely not reach 60, with as mentioned above the off and on drizzle or light rain. Thursday will be much brighter, with partly cloudy skies and highs in the low 60s. Under the current forecasts, lows Thursday Night should not drop cool enough to see frost in Inner city and Downtown locations, but outer cities may see patchy frost.



Tuesday, Partly Cloudy with a slim chance of a thunderstorm, some could be strong possibly severe. Highs in the lot to mid 70s. Then increasing cloudiness and wind. Tuesday Night, Windy, winds could gust to near 35MPH, possibly 40MPH at times. Otherwise partly cloudy with lows in the mid 40s.



Wednesday, Windy, Cold, Mostly cloudy with off and on drizzle. Highs in the mid to upper 50s Winds could gust to 30MPH. Wednesday Night, Cloudy, lows in the mid 40s.



Thursday, Clearing skies. Partly cloudy with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Thursday Night, chilly, clear skies with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.



No looking ahead forecast.

Fall Color Report #2 colors are just starting to show across most of Southeastern Minnesota.

Fall color report #2


Fall colors are now just starting to show across much of Southeastern Minnesota with the longer nights and very chilly days we've been having. All areas along and North of Interstate 90 are now reporting slight color in earlier changing trees. While the far southern part of the area, including Austin and Harmony remains primarily green, with no color yet being reported. Average peak time is only about 3 to 4 weeks away so I suspect color really begin to show faster in the next few weeks!

Sugar maple starting to turn orange September 19th 2011 West Downtown Rochester.

Here in Rochester I give the area about 10% color chance so far, I've started to noticed a few spotty earlier changing trees starting to turn color along city streets. I've seen Sugar Maple, and some Ash starting to turn orange and yellow. Burning bushes in yards are also starting to turn reddish-pink. another thing I noticed is quite a few trees are just dropping leaves with little to no color, likely due to stress from dry conditions.

Green trees September 19th 2011

As one can see we will have a very long ways to go, there is still lots of green around. In the yard, trees remain very green at this time. The only color I have noticed is the Ash in the front yard starting to hint at possible color change soon by some slight yellowing and dropping of a few leaves, otherwise it is still mostly green and not impressive at this time.

Much Needed Rainfall arrives Sunday, then brief nice weather Monday, before more rain chances Tuesday.

Regional Weather View.

A weather system will spread showers and thunderstorms across much of the Upper Midwest. These will fall across an area that could really use the rainfall, and these storms will not be severe. As a result of the rain, it will be cool region-wide before clearing and warmer temperatures move in from the west for Monday, then our next weather system arrives, bring more rain chances Tuesday.
Local weather view.



Locally we can expect a cloudy, wet, cool and dreary Sunday with showers and possibly some thunderstorms in the morning. This rainfall is much needed, and the good news is some spots may see some heavier downpours with rainfall amounts over a quarter inch Highs will only be in the mid 60s and lows in the low 50s with the rainfall. Monday will be a much better day across the area. We can expect clearing skies, and much warmer temperatures in the low 70s. With lows in the low 50s. Tuesday our next weather system already arrives with a cold front, it will be partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. It is too early to tell if they will be severe, but some could be strong, temps will be a bit warmer in the upper 60s with this rainfall, lows will be in the low 50s.



Metro View.

For the Rochester Metro we can expect the same wet & cool Sunday conditions. Monday will be brighter, with highs in the mid 70s for Rochester, and lows in the low 50s. Tuesday will be partly cloudy, with shower and thunderstorm chances, with highs in near 70, and lows in the low 50s.

Sunday, Widespread Showers and thunderstorms, heavier downpours possible. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Sunday Night, a chance of a shower early, otherwise clearing skies, lows in the low 50s.

Monday, Much nicer, partly cloudy, highs in the low to mid 70s. Monday Night, Increasing clouds, lows in the lower 50s.

Tuesday, Partly Cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s to 70.F Tuesday Night, A chance of a shower, otherwise mostly cloudy with lows in the low 50s.

Looking Ahead

Weather looks to dry out nicely behind Tuesdays system. Dry weather with seasonal temps looks to last from Thursday, all the way into next weekend, and even into the following week. Its not until October that we will see more rain chances coming in. The model is very un trust worthy this time of year, so check back often.

9/15/2011 Record Low Temps last night-Growing season has ended in some areas-Upper 20s reported!

Frost in our backyard in West Downtown Rochester September 15th 2011

Record Low Temperatures with the first frost of the season was reported across all of Southeast Minnesota area last night, and in some localized cases freezing conditions were reported, causing an end to the growing season. A very strong cold front, followed by a strong high pressure with dry air allowed clear skies which contributed to the frost/freeze overnight. A hard damaging frost was seen in most cases North of I-90 away from the Mississippi River and outside the Rochester Metro where low 30s and upper 20s were common. South of I-90 and along the Mississippi, frost was more patchy and less damaging. In these areas mid 30s were seen and the growing season continues.

Photo of tender annuals that were not effect by frosts.

At my location in West Downtown we also had our frist frost with a low 35.F, but the frost was extremely patchy/light, from a distance the yard barely had any white appearance at all. Flowers and tender plants along the deck were not effected and are still beautiful and in full bloom, but on my daily commute to the college on the Eastern outskirts of the city I saw plants that were hit and the corn crops appeared to be very brown. To go along with this, The Rochester Airport away from the city 9 miles to my south had a record breaking low of 31.F, with a hard frost. My theory behind the lack of frost an warmer conditions at my location is that there was some heating effect going on from all the nearby homes and large buildings, as the yard is located in a inner city residential neighborhood.

Low temps recorded September 15th 2011

Several locations broke record low temperatures last night, one including the Rochester International Airport which had a low of 31.F breaking the old record for Sept 15th which was 32.F The coldest area-wide reading came from a un official station in Kenyon which fell to 28.F and the warmest area was Washaba at 36.F For the Rochester Metro, the coldest in the area was Oronoco, where a freeze was reported and the warmest was My station in West Downtown which fell to 35.F.

Very Chilly Air setteling in. 50s for highs Wed then Widespread hard frost or freeze likely Wednesday night. -updated X1

Regional weather view.

Attention is on a very chilly airmass settling into the Upper Midwest which came in on a cold front that slid through Tuesday. It will feel very like fall across the entire region, some places may not even get out of the 50s on Wednesday in Minnesota and Wisconsin. A early widespread freeze or frost is likely across South Dakota, Minnesota, Most of Wisconsin and Iowa..

Local View.

Note: This forecast has been updated due to more cold air looking to entrench into the local area, because of this low temps Wednesday have been lowered.

Locally we can expect very chilly conditions as we get into Wednesday. It will feel fall like, and will feel chilly to even "coldish" Under chilly but sunny conditions. Highs will not even get out of the 50s. This will set the stage for the areas 1st frost and possibly freeze of the season, which is discussed below. The cool, sunny conditions will last through Thursday with highs a bit warmer in the low 60s, and lows near frosting potential again in the upper 30s to 40.F on Thursday Night.

Widespread Wednesday Night hard Frost/Freeze likely.

Wednesday after highs are reached, clear skies and light winds overnight will allow for significantly dropping temperatures after sunset, lows will fall to the low to mid 30s across many areas. This will likely cause widespread killing frost for much of the area. it now looks to end the growing season for some parts of Southeast Minnesota as some places may reach the upper 20s, The best chance for this and a freeze will be north of Rochester and Winona. South of there are hard frost is still likely with lows in the mid 30s. This is very early for frosts this hard in Southern Minnesota. Temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s this early will kill tender annuals and veggies, and can cause damage to landscape trees and shrubs. People should take time to bring in tender annuals or veggies, as well as over summering houseplants Wednesday Night, and keep them in Thursday Night as well lows once again will dip to the once again into the mid to upper 30s

Metro view.

For the Rochester Metro, we can also expect Wednesday to be our coldest day, it will be very chilly even with sunshine. Highs may briefly reach 60, then after sunset temps will quickly fall off dipping into the 30s. Thursday will bring slightly warmer conditions with highs in the mid 60s, and lows in the low 40s.

Rochester Frost Chances.

Frost is also a likelyhood for the Rochester Metro, the worst frost or growing season ending freeze with low 30s will be in outlying residential areas such as around the airport and surrounding communities. I still feel the Inner residential and Downtown areas will likely see lighter patchy frosts with lows in the middle 30s. In these areas garden plants may be less damaged.

Wednesday, Very Chilly! Lots of sunshine with highs in the upper 50s to near 60. Wednesday Night, Clear Skies, Cold! Widespread frost or freeze likely. lows falling to the low to middle 30s. with upper 20s possible in cooler spots north.

Thursday, Chilly, Sunny with highs in the low to mid 60s. Thursday Night, Very Chilly, Clear skies with lows in the mid to upper 30s.

Looking Ahead

After this nosedive in temps, it stabilizes into the first part of the weekend with more milder and dry conditions. The models are trying to hint and a slightly wetter pattern trying to set up for the second half of next weekend. Then it dries out with fair temps for Monday and Tuesday the 19th and 20th. The models then show a much warmer, but dry air mass pulling into the region around the 23rd. Then a very cold low pressure system passes Northeast around the 29th, not looking to effect our weather at this time.