Severe Storms possible this afternoon/tonight. Looking better for Wednesday.

Regional View.



A strong warm front/cold system will move across the Upper Midwest, separating a cool air mass from a hot one, This will bring heat and humidity to Iowa, where highs will be in the 90, and a chilly air mass to Northern Wis/Minnesota, where highs will be in the 50s. there threat for severe storms in Minnesota and Wisconsin Monday Night. Tuesday the cold front will pass through, bringing a chance of rain early. Wednesday looks pleasant and drier, but cooler.



Local View.


Note I and making a forecast for today late because of the severe weather potential in the local area this evening.

Locally, A Strong warm front will approach the area by this evening, This will be the separating line from relatively warmer temperatures from cold temperatures. The front will likely surpass some of the area, and looks likely that parts of the Southern area could hit 70.F with some sun possible. While the North could remain under clouds the upper 50s. Drizzle will also be common north of the front.

This evenings severe weather threat.


This system looks complex but strong. There may be enough ingredients that some of the showers that form near the triple point could get strong and become severe. The triple point will pass close to the local area, and it's possible severe storms could happen despite of not seeing any sun. The main threats are large hail, strong winds. and the chance for tornado's. The best chance appears to be late Monday. People in the area should be aware that there is the chance for severe weather.

Tuesday looks like a chance of rain in the morning as the cold front passes through. It's possible we could have out daytime highs early, when it could be in the 70s. then the cold front passes and it will become partly cloudy and cooler. it could be breezy as well. Tuesday Night as a cooler air mass settles in, will be chilly with lows falling into the mid 40s to low 40s north.

Wednesday looks nice, but a bit chilly. It will be dry, and highs should be in the mid 60s. Wednesday Night Clouds increase ahead of our next system.

Rest of Monday, Cloudy and chilly at first then turning Partly Cloudy late. Highs in the low 70s south to upper 50s North. Showers and Thunderstorms possible late. Some storms could be severe. Monday Night, Mild with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms, some could be severe. Lows steady in the mid to upper 60s

Tuesday, A chance of showers and thunderstorms early then Partly Sunny, Highs near 70.F early then cooling off. Breezy in the afternoon. Tuesday Night, Partly Cloudy Much cooler with lows in the low to mid 40s.

Wednesday, Nice, Sunny with highs in the lower to mid 60s. Wednesday Night, Increasing Clouds lows in the low 50s.

Looking Ahead

Clouds increase Wednesday in advance of a potential strong system for Thursday which will last into Friday, Heavy rainfall is appearing likely at this time, with potential very gusty winds. The weekend looks dry with partly cloudy to partly sunny skies, with a high pressure system moving in. Monday the 17th looks Warmer, as a warm air mass from the south moved in. We may have a shot at 80.F, The warm air mass looks to continue into the midweek of that week, before cooler and rainy conditions move in by the 30th, It looks warmer and less stormy as we head into the first parts of October.

Frost Report September 19th & Fall Color Report # 2

Sunday Morning lows Sept 19th.

Sunday morning brought a very chilly morning to the area, The coldest morning since early May. Many places fell into the 30s, including a few locations in the southern area, This may have lead to some light patchy frosts in parts of Northern Polk/Barron Counties. The Northern part of the area was the hardest hit with frost, with some parts even having it's first freeze of the season. It appears like all of Burnett and Washburn counties got a freeze or at least a widespread frost, with mid 30s with even one upper 20 degree low being reported there. The coldest station, Minong had a very chilly 29.F. The far southern parts of the area mainly South of highway 8 and West of Highway 53 remained completely frost free. Thin clouds moved into this area, preventing lows from falling too far, lows here in the upper 30s to low 40s. The warmest station was Hudson not shown above. The low was 45.F there.

The low temperature at my station was 39.F, which is the first time I've hit the upper 30s this fall season. There was no frost at my location. My yard, and in the open fields beyond my yard were frost free when I checked at 6AM. This means I will continue to count the days till my first fall frost. A thin layer of clouds moved in just in time late last night, this prevented the temperature from falling too far, thus stopping frost from forming!

Fall Color Report # 2

Fall color is slowing starting to increase across the area. All locations are now reporting at least some color expect for Hudson and Menomonie in St Croix and Dunn Counties, colors will continue to increase as we go through the next couple weeks, especially with this chilly weather and longer nights.

Ash tree color in my front yard Sept 18th

At my location, I officially report Little Color 14% change Color has really started to show most in Earlier changing trees like Ash and Maples, 1 of the 2 ashes in my yard above is starting to get nice color, I've also seen some beautiful color starting to develop on a few sugar maples in Clayton. Sumac has bright red colors, as well as shrubs planted along homes like Burning Bush. Late change trees like Oak, Birch, Poplar are holding strong in their summer green color, So for not things are mostly green expect for a few spots of color. It appears like were in for a beautiful season of color this year if we hold off from getting freezing temperatures!

Showers Friday, then Chilly Saturday, with frost potienal

Regional View





A chilly weekend is forecasted, with showers and thunderstorms along a strong cold front Friday. Saturday looks much cooler across the Upper Midwest behind this front, highs will be in the 50s, with night time temperatures possible falling to the Freeze range with temps in upper 20s to low 30s in Northern Wisconsin and Minnesota, and frost range father south in the upper 30s. Sunday looks a bit warmer with partly sunny skies, Showers may try to work their way in late in the day Sunday

Local View.

Friday will start off with Rainshowers, possibly a thunderstorm in the morning, which will form along the passing of a cold front, then in the afternoon skies will become partly sunny. Highs will warm to the low 60s, Friday night will be on the chilly side, with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies lows will fall to the low to mie 30s.

Frost/Freeze potential

Saturday will be chilly. Even with partly sunny to partly cloudy skies, highs will only warm to the mid to upper 50s, Skies should clear by late in the day, and this would set the stage for a very chilly night. There are a few factors, like if more clouds are around, it could remain a bit warmer and frost may now form, but right now it appears lows will fall to the mid to upper 30s with frost looking like a good possibility for the entire are expect for far southwesterly locations, this could be the first frost for Southern parts of the area. The first freeze is possible in isolated cold spots Northern Burnett/Washburn counties around Minong where lows could fall to the low 30s. People the area should bring plants in to protect them from possible frost/freezing conditions.

Sunday looks a bit warmer, with partly cloudy skies and highs rising to the low 60s. Frost will not be a possibility on Sunday Night with lows warmer in the mid 40s.

Friday, A chance of Showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then partly sunny, to partly cloudy skies. highs in the low 60s. Friday Night, Partly to Mostly Cloudy, lows in the mid 40s

Saturday, Chilly, Partly Sunny to Partly Cloudy, Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Saturday Night, Very chilly, Frost possible Southern areas, with Freeze possible in the Northern areas, lows falling to the low 30s north and mid to upper 30s south.

Sunday, Warmer, Partly Sunny skies, highs in the low 60s. Sunday Night,Mostly Cloudy, lows in the mid 40s

Looking Ahead

The long ranges forecasts continue to be wild, now showing a warmer trend then last forecast issue. Monday a temporary warmer air mass pushes into the area ahead of a low pressure system, bringing with it a chance of showers and thunderstorms lasting into Tuesday, Wednesday looks dry with fair temps. Then Thursday and Friday a strong low pressure system develops and effects the area, Heavy rain appears possible. Saturday and Sunday the 25th/26th looks dry. Then the models show a colder airmass just barely missing the area to the east with showers on Tuesday the 28th. then Thursday the 20th, a warm airmass follows behind the cold one bringing mid temps. only for a second cold airmass to plop down into the area around Oct 1st.

Heavy September Rains Wednesday Sept 15

Heavy Rain in our yard light Wednesday Night September 15th

A strong low pressure system with a strong warm front in Southern Minnesota brought widespread high rainfall totals across the area. after bringing Severe Weather to Southern Minnesota, It transferred into a heavy rain event. The rain came in the form on Thunderstorms with vivid lightning that formed late in the day in Minnesota, and then funneled into Western Wisconsin. some of this rainfall that hit was very heavy. Some places have recorded totals near 2 inches, with some radar estimates were over 3 inches in Northwest Polk County! Thankfully there was no flooding in the area with this rain. At my location I got 1.29" which is more then what the first part entire month has brought. This system continues the abundant rainfall the area has gotten this year, and it brings the closest to average rainfall we've been in quite a few years. I've picked up 24.83" so far this year. This is the closet I've been to my yearly average rainfall of about 26 inches since I started recording. If we continue this trend, It looks likely that this year will end out with above normal rainfall totals.

Rainfall totals from around the area from highest to lowest.

Cumberland 1.73"

Menomonie 1.73"

Siren 1.59"

Spooner 1.52"

Hudson 1.40"

Clayton-My Sta. 1.29"

Rice Lake Airport 1.29"

Osceola 1.19"

New Richmond 1.13"

Woodville 1.01"

Small risk severe weather this afternoon.

Image from SPC

The SPC has issued a Slight risk for parts of Minnesota and Iowa, and a Small 5% risk for Western Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota. A fairly strong low pressure system with warm front south will ignite some storms this morning and afternoon. A small risk means there, there is a chance a few storms could be strong, to possibly on the lighter side of severe. Today's highest risks are strong winds and hail, and this risks appears to be the highest south highway 70.

Chilly next couple days. frost possible north again on Tuesday night. Widespread Wednesday. Updated X1

Regional View.

A Chilly early start to the week is Forecasted for the Northern part of the Upper Midwest, with highs in the 50s and 60s, Frost is possible in parts of Northern Wisconsin and Northern Minnesota away from Lake Superior, with Freeze condtions possible in Upper Michigan. Rain chances will spread Northeast with a front by Wednesday, Widespread heavy rainfall totals are possible in Minnesota/Wisconsin with Severe Thunderstorms possible in Iowa.



Local View

Due to a change in Wednesday forecasting model, I had to make a few chances to this forecast.

Locally, Tuesday night/Wednesday morning will start off cool. Temperatures will fall to the upper 30s in some places. Frost is still a possibility in the Northern Highlands of Washburn/Burnett Counties, People in this area should bring in plants/cover them. South of this area, clouds will move in and it will stay warm enough that frost will not form, lows in this area will be in the low to mid 40s. Wednesday may start off partly cloudy early, but things will quickly cloud over. By Wednesday afternoon, Widespread rain looks pretty likely for the entire area. Widespread rainfall up to 1" is possible. With clouds and rain, It will very chilly, wet day. Highs will likely remain in the upper 50s, It will be on the breezy side as well, with winds up to 20MPH.



Wednesday, Frost possible North early, then showers and possible Tstorms with steady rain in the afternoon. Widespread totals up to 1" possible, Highs in the upper 50s. Wednesday Night, A chance of showers and thunderstorms, lows in the upper 40s.


Looking Ahead Updated.


The Good news is the cold air mass I've been forecasting for Tuesday or Wednesday of this week is not as strong as thought with frost chances staying North, But a much cooler air mass may be moving into the area by the end of this week it now looks like Details below.

The forecast models are painting a much cooler picture then last week. The models did speed up the system that was forecast for Thursday and pushed it back into Wednesday, now it looks to be dry and cooler for Thursday. Then the models show much colder air rushing in by Friday the 17th, under a very chilly high pressure Highs could be in the low 50s. This would set up for a potential for Hard frosts or even freezes for the entire area but especially north Friday Night or Saturday night. But resent updates suggest this cold air mass may not make quite such a dive south as earlier forecasted, so things could change between now and then. Shortly after the models are picking up on increased rain chances, Tuesday the 21st the model show a low pressure weather system with heavy rain and high wind potential. Behind this the models show even colder air yet pouring in by the 24th, Things will change, but at this time, it shows the potential for Highs to be in the upper 30s! Behind this warmer air finally pushes back in by the end of the model run.

Fall Color Report Number 1

Fall Color Map

The fall foliage has begun. This is my first report of 2010. We had a Hot and wet Summer 2010, Preip was normal, to well above normal, at my locations for the months on June, July and August. and temperatures were hot, with 10 90 or higher degree days occurring over the course of the summer, which is above normal. We had a very early start to the growing season, ending up to be 3 weeks earlier them normal, This could mean were in for a bit of a earlier peak fall color season. On Average, Northerly locations in Burnett and Washburn counties Normally peak first with peak fall color occurring during the end of September. In the south in Polk, Barron, St Croix and Dunn counties, Peak color is normally on the second week of October.

At this time every reporting locations has reported Little no color, but even with these reports some color can be seen, especially in very early changing Sumac and Virgina Creeper vines, sick or distressed Sugar Maples trees may also be found starting changing color. At my location, The early changing Ash tree in my front yard yard are starting to hint and turning colors. I've also seen some other area ash trees just starting to turn. Northern Highland locations in Burnett and Washburn counties have already has a light, to even hard frost in some locations, I suspect this area will start to see color very soon!

More reports to come!